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- Convenors:
-
Christian Wagner
(German Institute for International and Security Affairs)
Meena Singh Roy (Institute for Defence Studies and Anlyses)
- Location:
- Room 111
- Start time:
- 29 July, 2016 at
Time zone: Europe/Warsaw
- Session slots:
- 4
Short Abstract:
New governments in Delhi, Kabul and Colombo and the withdrawal of the international troops from Afghanistan have changed the parameters in South Asia. The panel will look at the consequences of these changes for the security environment in the region.
Long Abstract:
Democratic changes with new governments in Delhi, Kabul and Colombo and the withdrawal of the international troops from Afghanistan have changed the security parameters in South Asia. The new Indian government wants to intensify regional economic collaboration as part of its "Make in India" initiative. At the same time, it is confronted with a difficult regional setting that consists of various conflict and post-conflict scenarios like in Afghanistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka with spill-over effects on India. Domestically, the Modi government has given the Indian states more freedoms so that their impact on foreign policy especially with regard to the neighbouring countries will become more important. Modi has intensified India's relations with the United States and Japan in order to counter China's territorial ambitions. But China remains India's biggest trading partner and the government in Beijing has intensified its engagement in South Asia for instance by intensifying its political and economic engagement with Pakistan and by taking over more responsibilities for the peace process in Afghanistan. Pakistan and Afghanistan are confronted with the repercussions of the crisis in the Middle East by a growing presence of the Islamic State.
The panel welcomes contributions that deal with the recent changes in South Asia on the national and the regional level. Contributions may also focus on the changing role of external powers in the region and the increasing curtailment of NGOs in many South Asian countries.
Accepted papers:
Session 1Paper short abstract:
India has intensified its security cooperation with its neighbours in recent years. This has been alleviated by a common understanding among most of India's neighbours that militant movements pose the most important domestic security threats that require cross border cooperation.
Paper long abstract:
India has a long and difficult security relationship with its neighbours. The previous perception that South Asia is part of India's security underwent a change with the economic liberalisation and the Gujral doctrine in the 1990s. Since then India has developed a network of bilateral military cooperation with most of its neighbours within the South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Despite the difficult relations with Pakistan, both countries were able agreed on various confidence building measures.
In the academic discourse, India is still regarded as the regional bully but governments in most neighbouring countries see different militant groups as the most important security threats. Many of these groups operate across national borders which has facilitated the bilateral security cooperation.
The concept of India being a security provider was first conceptualized under the UPA government but had been in place long before for instance in the long military cooperation between India and Nepal or Bhutan. The Modi government has announced to expand this policy to some of the neighbouring states in the Indian Ocean as well.
Paper short abstract:
The non-traditional security issues like climate change along with water, energy, and food security and others have more devastation than conventional military conflicts. There is need of co-operation and co-ordination to design strategy for various level negotiations and joint action on the issues.
Paper long abstract:
Since the end of colonization South Asia has been recognized as one of the geopolitical hotspot of the world due to conflict like border dispute, water sharing, illegal migration, political instability, terrorism, internal security etc. Additionally non-traditional crises have been causing more devastation than conventional military threat and cause deterrent among the countries. These issues have been mired development process among the South Asian countries and proved devastating effects on process of confidence building, stability and peace process in the sub continent as a whole. Consequently, harmony and peace process among the countries could not achieve. Therefore, the work has been attempted to assess the scenario of non - traditional issues in the region. The various study revealed that the region is more vulnerable to climate change and environmental degradation and also have challenges such as poverty reduction, haphazard urbanization, disaster management, energy crisis, and food security. It will have severe and long-lived effects like retreating glacier, water for drinking and agriculture, land and forest degradation, flooding, migration etc. The investigation is based on integrative perspective and follows multi-methodological approach by applying qualitative and quantitative approach. The study figures out that need to be faced collectively through cooperative measures and regional cooperation for future well-being of the region. It involves measures like strengthening networking among the concern institutions to design strategies for negotiations with developed countries and joint action, transfer of clean and high end technology and capacity building efforts of various stakeholders to meet the challenges.
Paper short abstract:
The paper makes the case for the existence of two distinct variations of communities of practice in South Asia, i.e. a bilateral and a multilateral communtiy of practice.
Paper long abstract:
The paper makes the case for the existence of two distinct variations of communities of practice in South Asia. The community of practice and cognitive-evolution framework was originally developed by Emanuel Adler and centred on NATO and the transformation of Central and Eastern European countries. This paper develops Adler's approach further by transcending the latter's focus on institutional transformation and introduces the hybrid concept of the bidirectional community of practice. First, there is a bilateral community of practice centred on the subcontinent's core state, India, and now linking every South Asian state with New Delhi in the security sphere. Furthermore, there is a multilateral community of practice in the form of three pillars of cooperative-security practices anchored in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The significance of both the norm of non-interference and non-intervention for South Asia is reflected in both these communities of practice which represent the highest possible degree of inter-state security cooperation possible, including military training, political dialogue, the (cognitive) fight against terrorism, and trans-national crimes.
Paper short abstract:
India and Iran have a long history of engagement. Iran’s improving ties with the US, its growing regional profile, and India’s deep desire to cement its ties with Iran offer great potential for enhanced cooperation between India and Iran.
Paper long abstract:
Major developments are taking place in the geo-political landscape of the West Asian region. These new developments demand a fresh look at the bilateral relations between India and Iran in the context of the regional geopolitical complexities. More importantly, the current uncertainties in Afghanistan and Pakistan and increasing violence and upsurge of extremist forces like Daesh (or ISIS) in West Asian region have exposed India and Iran to completely new set of challenges, issues and conditions. These emerging new security challenges in the region demand India and Iran to jointly address these common challenges. Both countries are important regional actors and can play a significant role in maintaining regional security. Over the past few years, both countries have been struggling to manage their energy and economic ties under the shadow of the US and EU sanctions. The new regional situation is, however, much more amenable for constructive engagement between Iran and India.
Paper short abstract:
Indo-Israeli relations have expanded and transcended the traditional notions of 'strategic ties' and have expanded into areas which would provide long-term stability and sustenance to the bilateral ties.
Paper long abstract:
More than two decades after normalization, Israel has emerged as an important player in India's foreign policy calculations and is part of its emerging look-East policy. The relations have weathered political changes in India as well as periodic regional upheavals in the Middle East. Limited political exchanges during the decade-long UPA rule in India were accompanied by greater maturity and professionalism on both sides. Within its structural limitations, the military-security cooperation plays a pivotal role in the bilateral relations. There are signs that towards expanding its relations, both countries are redefining its priorities through economic engagements and Israel is partaking in the priorities of the Indian government and its infrastructure development. Besides boosting economic ties, this strategy is also aimed at expanding and consolidating its support base in India beyond the urban elites. Through its active economic engagement with the state governments, Israel is expanding the conventional understanding of 'strategic' cooperation.
Paper short abstract:
This study explores in what way the changing balance of power in Pakistan (specifically, the soaring popularity of the military) is likely to influence security developments both within and outside the country.
Paper long abstract:
Through history, Pakistan's internal affairs had direct repercussions on the security environment in South Asia. Currently soaring popularity of the Pakistani military within the country is one of such cases. A complicated process in itself, it gradually changes not only the balance of power in Pakistan, but also the relations between Pakistan and other countries of the region: contacts with India are once again strained, while ties with Afghanistan and China are receiving positive impulses.
What is more, the rise of military support bears twofold correlation with the relatively successful war on terror (in the form of Zarb-e Azb - a counter-insurgency operation, which is taking place in Pakistan's most turbulent regions). Originally being the reason for army's growing influence, it gradually turned into its consequence (namely, it became one of the ways to claim the broad scope of functions and justify the expanding military budget).
The war on terror, on its part, directly impacts on the standing and structure of Islamic radicalism in South Asia. Though up to now Pakistani commandment has managed to keep ISIS at bay, successive attempts to curtail the activity of Taliban may potentially clear space for the establishment of other extremist organisations in the region.
The purpose of this study is to explore in what way new political realities in Pakistan (specifically, the growing role of the military) are likely to influence security developments both within and outside the country.
Paper short abstract:
With the changes in the governments in some of the South Asian countries and their governing approaches have direct and indirect consequences to the Nepal's economy and security. This paper examines these dynamics.
Paper long abstract:
The changes of the government in the resent past in India and Sri Lanka and their changed priority have direct and indirect impacts to the Nepal's economy and security. As Nepal's political, economic and security relations with India is unique and changes in any of them in India directly affects Nepal. As the new India government has much emphasis on economic cooperation between Nepal and India and promised to distance from political interference, the priority of Nepal has also shifted and it has direct relations with its economic development and security. However, the still unstable political environment in Nepal and its spillover effects to bordering areas of India as well as bit of over-reliant Madeshi public sentiment in one hand and general Nepali anti-Indian public sentiment on the others are still challenges. Further, growing Chinese interests in Nepal is another concern of India. Likewise, the emergence of new government in Sri Lanka widened scope for Nepal to promote more economic collaboration. This paper will analyze this dynamics.
Paper short abstract:
An empirical analysis of unchecked Saudi-funded spread of Wahhabism and Salafism in Maldives, and its implications for South Asian security. Contributes towards bridging the existing gap in knowledge of Maldivian affairs in attempts to understand South Asia's security environment as a whole.
Paper long abstract:
The Maldives is the smallest nation in South Asia, yet the radical changes in its religious beliefs and practices have the potential to have an enormous impact on the changing security environment in South Asia. Currently the Maldives has the highest number of fighters in Syria and Iraq from any South Asian country. Ignoring, or ignorance of, anti-democratic and religious developments in the Maldives leaves a significant gap in the understanding of the region's security as a whole. This paper provides empirical analyses of the following politico-religious changes in the Maldives: the ongoing authoritarian reversal; the fast-spreading, and intensifying adoption of Wahhabi and Salafist beliefs; increasing government-led 'religious unity' with Saudi Arabia; foreign policy-pivot away from democracies; and the large number of Maldivian fighters who see the Maldives as 'a land of sin', and leave to join 'Jihadists' in Syria and Iraq. It will look at the regional implications of these developments, examine Maldives' ties with other countries in the region, and explore how these ties can help or hinder regional security. It also highlights the dangers of ignoring Maldives in regional security analyses.
Paper short abstract:
The paper proposes to examine the factors that continue to provide a breeding ground to radical/extremist elements in contemporary times, primarily focusing on the impediments to autonomy and capacity of institutions of governance and legitimacy in Pakistan and Bangladesh over the last decade.
Paper long abstract:
State and civil society institutions in South Asia have faced the brunt of internal strife as well as regional politics, and have been consistently tested over the past decade. Though durability and outcome varies, the political culture, temper of dissent, and independence/autonomy of institutions has greatly been compromised, especially with the proliferation of groups propounding particular interpretations of doctrines and using terrorism as their modus operandi.
The paper proposes to examine the impact on institutions of governance in South Asia due to the presence, actions, agenda and motives of radicalizing elements within the polity, particularly in Pakistan and Bangladesh. The effect on the autonomy and capacity of institutions in continuing to provide a breeding ground to radical elements in contemporary times will be further examined.
State institutions (Judiciary/Executive ) have been weakened due to a number of factors: years of authoritarian political culture; the nexus of several radical groups with institutions such as the military; the destructive potential and capacity of these groups; growing disillusionment with apparatuses of government and increasing appeal in terms of recruits; economic predicament of the people; the ideology of pan-Islamism; external financial networks; impact of radical Wahhabism, are among the factors that have entrenched a space for radical elements and posed a challenge to governance. Groups have further secured and legitimized their positions with their control over cultural apparatuses like educational institutions. Further, with the expansion of ISIS, the threat to sanctity of institutions seems overwhelming in South Asia and will be examined.
Paper short abstract:
Keeping China's increasing involvement in the adjoining areas of India's northeast, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar in mind, the proposed paper intends to analyse security- development conundrum against the backdrop of initiatives taken for strengthening cross-border connectivity.
Paper long abstract:
In an age of economic interdependence and cooperative security, connectivity has become a buzzword. Physical connectivity comprising land, water, and air components has been envisaged to further bilateral and multilateral ties among the nations in a region or sub region in order to complement each other's strengths and weaknesses. Initiatives to increase connectivity among the states in the eastern part of South Asia are not new. The Asian Development Bank, being impressed with the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS), took initiatives to promote the idea of a similar experiment of multilateral sub-regional cooperation in the name of SAGQ in the east of South Asia. Similar initiatives in the recent past have also been taken to form sub-regional groups like the BIMSTEC, BCIM-EC and BBIN. In all these cases, a major emphasis has been on improvement of overland connectivity between India's northeast and its contiguous area comprising India's eastern and southeastern neighbours. It is expected that, once these roads and railway lines become operational and inter-linkages are established within this select area, it will be a game changer for the landlocked India's northeast, which is one of the most complex regions in the entire Indian territory. Nonetheless the security-development nexus has become a major consideration in these endeavours. Against this backdrop, the proposed paper intends to focus on pros and cons of connectivity projects keeping China's increasing involvement in this part of the region in mind.
Paper short abstract:
The paper deals with possible new directions in the complicated bilateral relations between India and Myanmar after national elections produced new governments in New Delhi 2014 and in Naypyidaw 2015. Can Myanmar be a balancing factor in South Asia's changing security environment?
Paper long abstract:
Despite a promising start after independence, the bilateral relations between India and Myanmar have a long history of mutual neglect and obliviousness. The paper is going to revisit the developments since the end of colonial rule and point out crucial historical landmarks. Further, the most important policy issues between the two nations will be discussed. Focal point of the analysis will be the question whether one can expect new directions in the bilateral relationship after national elections produced new governments in India 2014 and in Myanmar 2015. While there have been signs of a new foreign policy approach regarding its eastern neighbor from the Indian side under prime minister Narendra Modi, it remains to be seen if the government of Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy will substantially alter Myanmar's course on an international level. The paper is also going to pose the question whether Myanmar can and will be a balancing and potentially stabilizing factor in South Asia's changing security environment.
Paper short abstract:
The paper will look at recent developments in the Indo-Myanmar border and its implications on India’s border security.
Paper long abstract:
The Politics of 'Shifting' Borders: Contestations at the Indo-Myanmar border
On June 4, 2015, an Indian army convoy was ambushed in Manipur by a coalition of insurgents from Manipur and Myanmar. The Indian army retaliated with a cross-border operation destroying rebel camps in Myanmar. Apart from photographs of the charred remains of the Indian army personnel killed in the attack, the ambush itself and counter-attack remain shrouded in mystery. Why was the ambush carried out? What were the rebels' demands? Who stands to benefit from the ambush? Till date, no one can answer any of these pertinent questions.
These developments at Indo-Myanmar border warrant thorough investigation and transparency. One also needs to keep in mind that the Indo-Myanmar border is home to some of the oldest insurgency movements in the world. Therefore, the region is heavily militarized. For example, in Manipur the ration of paramilitary to civilians is 6:1, without accounting for cadres from the armed insurgency groups. More troops are being planned for deployment to 'protect' the region. The people see this as the Indian government's move of 'securing the territory'. It is against this backdrop that the paper seeks to investigate
• Shifting borders owing to Myanmar's politico-economic liberalization
• Act/Look East Policy vis-à-vis growing troubles in the northeastern states and the Indo-Myanmar border
• The history of contestations, insurgency and counter-insurgency strategies at the Indo-Myanmar border
• The implications of shifting borders in terms of India's border security and for the people who live on the border.