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Abstract

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has catalyzed a profound shift in European defense policy and triggered a renewed geopolitical realignment. As Russia becomes increasingly isolated from the West, the Kremlin has revived its ‘pivot to the East,’ deepening bilateral ties with China. However, despite growing cooperation, Moscow and Beijing remain competitors within the broader Eurasian geopolitical landscape—an evolving arena reminiscent of a new "Great Game." In particular, Central Asian republics have been steadily distancing themselves from Moscow since 2022, while China has moved, with mixed success, to fill the resulting power vacuum.

This paper investigates how Russian foreign policymakers have conceptualized Russia’s status, identity, and strategic role in relation to China within the context of Central Asia since the onset of the so-called "Special Military Operation" (SVO). The central research question asks: How do Russian foreign policymakers construct Russia’s status, identity, and role vis-à-vis China in the Central Asian geopolitical context? The study adopts a constructivist theoretical lens and combines interdisciplinary approaches with computational methods, utilizing automated text analysis of official statements and social media content produced by Russian foreign policymakers over a three-year period following February 2022.

Overall, as policymakers' perceptions guide their actions, the research will contribute to a better understanding of Russia’s worldviews and thus intentions within the political contexts in focus.

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China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) combines economic ambition with a quest for soft power influence across Eurasia. This article examines how China deploys soft power in Kazakhstan – the country where BRI was first announced – and how Kazakhstan’s government and society respond. We draw on scholarly literature, public opinion data, and a new expert survey to assess the effectiveness of China’s cultural diplomacy, education programs, and media outreach in winning hearts and minds. We find that despite significant Chinese investments and initiatives (e.g., Confucius Institutes, student scholarships, and state media content), public sentiment in Kazakhstan toward China remains wary. Historical fears, information security concerns, and recent controversies – from land lease protests to discontent over China’s Xinjiang policies – have inhibited China’s soft power gains. At the same time, Kazakhstan pursues a multi-vector strategy, leveraging its own cultural identity and aligning BRI with its domestic “Nurly Zhol” program to balance foreign influence. This study highlights the gap between economic interdependence and genuine soft power acceptance, underscoring the need for deeper people-to-people engagement and trust-building to make China’s soft power under BRI more effective in Central Asia.

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Tibetan Buddhism has played a key role in shaping Mongolian culture, society, and politics for almost 500 years. The 2023 recognition by the Dalai Lama of a now 11-year-old Mongolian boy—born in Washington, D.C. to Mongolian parents—as the 10th Jebtsundamba Khutughtu has reignited debates about religious authority, national identity, and international power dynamics. The Jebtsundamba Khutughtu lineage, known locally in Mongolia as the Bogd, has historically served as Mongolia’s highest-ranking Buddhist figure and, at times, its theocratic ruler. Today, the identification of a new Bogd carries significance far beyond questions of spiritual succession.

This paper will analyze the geopolitical implications of the new Bogd's recognition for Mongolia’s relations with China, Russia, and the United States. Drawing from policy documents, public statements, media coverage, and recent fieldwork, this paper examines both domestic responses in Mongolia and the broader international stakes. The approac

h combines discourse analysis of Mongolian, Chinese, and Western media with interviews and analysis of Buddhist institutional communications from 2016 to 2025.

The study argues that the Dalai Lama’s decision to recognize a US-born, ethnic Mongol as a candidate fundamentally challenges China’s long-standing attempt to control the succession of high-ranking Buddhist figures. The People’s Republic of China, which formally claims authority over Tibetan Buddhist reincarnations, perceives the independent recognition of the Bogd as a direct challenge to its Sinicization policies and efforts to project influence over Central Asia. Mongolia, for its part, is navigating a delicate path: seeking to reinforce national religious identity while maintaining balanced relations with both its powerful neighbor and the United States.

If accurate, the child’s birthplace introduces a novel dimension to the issue, raising questions about Mongolia’s diaspora, dual-nationality, and how US-Mongolia-China trilateral relations might be affected should the child’s status become an issue or receive attention in Washington. The paper highlights how religious processes intersect with questions of sovereignty, soft power, and great power relations in 21st-century Eurasia.