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Abstract

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has catalyzed a profound shift in European defense policy and triggered a renewed geopolitical realignment. As Russia becomes increasingly isolated from the West, the Kremlin has revived its ‘pivot to the East,’ deepening bilateral ties with China. However, despite growing cooperation, Moscow and Beijing remain competitors within the broader Eurasian geopolitical landscape—an evolving arena reminiscent of a new "Great Game." In particular, Central Asian republics have been steadily distancing themselves from Moscow since 2022, while China has moved, with mixed success, to fill the resulting power vacuum.

This paper investigates how Russian foreign policymakers have conceptualized Russia’s status, identity, and strategic role in relation to China within the context of Central Asia since the onset of the so-called "Special Military Operation" (SVO). The central research question asks: How do Russian foreign policymakers construct Russia’s status, identity, and role vis-à-vis China in the Central Asian geopolitical context? The study adopts a constructivist theoretical lens and combines interdisciplinary approaches with computational methods, utilizing automated text analysis of official statements and social media content produced by Russian foreign policymakers over a three-year period following February 2022.

Overall, as policymakers' perceptions guide their actions, the research will contribute to a better understanding of Russia’s worldviews and thus intentions within the political contexts in focus.