Accepted Paper

Reincarnation, Identity, and Power: Mongolia’s Bogd and Regional Geopolitics  
Michael Lake

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Abstract

Tibetan Buddhism has played a key role in shaping Mongolian culture, society, and politics for almost 500 years. The 2023 recognition by the Dalai Lama of a now 11-year-old Mongolian boy—born in Washington, D.C. to Mongolian parents—as the 10th Jebtsundamba Khutughtu has reignited debates about religious authority, national identity, and international power dynamics. The Jebtsundamba Khutughtu lineage, known locally in Mongolia as the Bogd, has historically served as Mongolia’s highest-ranking Buddhist figure and, at times, its theocratic ruler. Today, the identification of a new Bogd carries significance far beyond questions of spiritual succession.

This paper will analyze the geopolitical implications of the new Bogd's recognition for Mongolia’s relations with China, Russia, and the United States. Drawing from policy documents, public statements, media coverage, and recent fieldwork, this paper examines both domestic responses in Mongolia and the broader international stakes. The approac

h combines discourse analysis of Mongolian, Chinese, and Western media with interviews and analysis of Buddhist institutional communications from 2016 to 2025.

The study argues that the Dalai Lama’s decision to recognize a US-born, ethnic Mongol as a candidate fundamentally challenges China’s long-standing attempt to control the succession of high-ranking Buddhist figures. The People’s Republic of China, which formally claims authority over Tibetan Buddhist reincarnations, perceives the independent recognition of the Bogd as a direct challenge to its Sinicization policies and efforts to project influence over Central Asia. Mongolia, for its part, is navigating a delicate path: seeking to reinforce national religious identity while maintaining balanced relations with both its powerful neighbor and the United States.

If accurate, the child’s birthplace introduces a novel dimension to the issue, raising questions about Mongolia’s diaspora, dual-nationality, and how US-Mongolia-China trilateral relations might be affected should the child’s status become an issue or receive attention in Washington. The paper highlights how religious processes intersect with questions of sovereignty, soft power, and great power relations in 21st-century Eurasia.

Panel POL04
Foreign Policy and Cultural Diplomacy
  Session 1 Wednesday 19 November, 2025, -