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Abstract

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) combines economic ambition with a quest for soft power influence across Eurasia. This article examines how China deploys soft power in Kazakhstan – the country where BRI was first announced – and how Kazakhstan’s government and society respond. We draw on scholarly literature, public opinion data, and a new expert survey to assess the effectiveness of China’s cultural diplomacy, education programs, and media outreach in winning hearts and minds. We find that despite significant Chinese investments and initiatives (e.g., Confucius Institutes, student scholarships, and state media content), public sentiment in Kazakhstan toward China remains wary. Historical fears, information security concerns, and recent controversies – from land lease protests to discontent over China’s Xinjiang policies – have inhibited China’s soft power gains. At the same time, Kazakhstan pursues a multi-vector strategy, leveraging its own cultural identity and aligning BRI with its domestic “Nurly Zhol” program to balance foreign influence. This study highlights the gap between economic interdependence and genuine soft power acceptance, underscoring the need for deeper people-to-people engagement and trust-building to make China’s soft power under BRI more effective in Central Asia.