Short Abstract

We adapted the UK’s ICF KPI 15 from a static metric into a dynamic tool that tracks signals of transformational change. Applied under FCDO’s ARCAN programme, we demonstrate our experience of how this can enable actionable insights and future-aware decisions to accelerate systemic transformation.

Description

Transformational change is central not only to climate and nature agendas but also to sectors where systemic shifts are critical. Yet measuring this change meaningfully, and using that evidence to shape decisions, remains an evaluative frontier. The UK’s International Climate Finance (ICF) Key Performance Indicator (KPI) 15 was designed to assess the likelihood of transformational change, but its original design was too static, linear and output-focused to capture the realities of complex, adaptive programmes or to inform forward-looking decisions. The urgency of the climate and nature crisis, and the growing scale of international climate finance, demands tools that do more than monitor progress: they must actively guide strategies and policies towards transformative action.

Drawing on our experience as the Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL) Unit of the FCDO’s Africa Regional Climate and Nature (ARCAN) programme this session will share how we developed, tested, and implemented an adjusted KPI 15 methodology, the lessons learned from doing so, and what this means for future applications across complex portfolios. Endorsed by ARCAN’s management team, our goal was not only to adapt the tool but to shift our team’s mindset towards transformational thinking - encouraging both evaluators and policymakers to move beyond compliance and adopt a reflective, future-oriented approach that asks “So what?” and “Now what?” to critically turn evidence into action.

At its centre is a Signals of Transformational Change framework, adapted from the Climate Investment Funds, which recognises that transformation unfolds in stages. Evaluators identify no, early, interim and advanced signals across criteria such as capacity, incentives and scalability to track cumulative progress and surface emerging momentum. We trialled additional dimensions such as gender equality and synergies, embedded sustainability as a cross-cutting judgement, and introduced a dual scoring system linking likelihood of change with strength of evidence. By moving KPI 15 from a static monitoring metric to an evaluative, future-aware sense-making tool; we aimed to strengthen evaluative insight, enable more nuanced judgements about where and how change is emerging, and better connect evidence to real learning and action.

Our session will begin with an introduction to transformational change concepts and the ICF KPI 15 methodology. We will then briefly introduce the ARCAN portfolio and the deficiencies of the existing ICF KPI 15 framework in our context. Next, we will provide a practical walkthrough of our adaptations and examples of its practical application. This includes a set of guiding principles we developed that encourage critical and contextual thinking - such as questioning the significance of change, recognising weak or negative signals and examining how change connects across levels (local to regional). Finally, we will share joint lessons learned by our team and FCDO, including challenges, along with forward-looking insights for evaluators, managers of complex portfolios (including the UK’s ICF portfolio team), and policymakers. While our focus is on climate and nature, these insights are relevant to other sectoral evaluators and MEL professionals seeking approaches to measurement that help programmes and policies move towards transformational change.