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- Convenors:
-
Yunas Samad
(University of Bradford)
Gurharpal Singh (SOAS)
Katharine Adeney (University of Nottingham)
Mariam Mufti (University of Waterloo)
- Location:
- 03G91
- Start time:
- 23 July, 2014 at
Time zone: Europe/Zurich
- Session slots:
- 3
Short Abstract:
This panel aims at gathering theoretically-grounded perspectives on electoral politics and democratisation in different countries in South Asia focusing on (but not restricted to) electoral campaigns, voting behaviour and government-formation.
Long Abstract:
In 2013 and 2014, elections are scheduled in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India, the most populous countries in South Asia. These elections will be a massive and momentous undertaking in each of the countries mentioned. India's election is the largest in the world. Pakistan has made the first transfer of power from an elected government to another after completing its full, five-year term. As such, the country has joined a number of post-colonial states that have made a transition to democracy. In Afghanistan, the first election without the supervision of ISAF forces will take place. In Bangladesh, it remains to be seen if the intensely confrontational politics among the two dominant political parties will allow for a legitimate and fair electoral contest.
This panel will reflect on elections and the democratic transition through the application of new methodological approaches to understand the process of political change that is occurring in South Asia. A theoretical and comparative approach will reflect on the democratic transition of South Asian countries, to understand the different stages of this process. It will particularly examine elections in South Asia with the intention of producing comparative analyses of a) electoral campaigns, b) voting behaviour with special reference to identity politics and c) government formation. These themes are not exclusive but are merely indicative of the range of topics that will be explored.
Accepted papers:
Session 1Paper long abstract:
Since 2002 Gujarat violence, one of the worst in Indian history, there has been a global perception about Narender Modi's complicity in the violence against Muslims. This perception has encouraged USA to deny him a Visa, though both UK and European Union (EU) have started re-engaging with Narendra Modi. But, the perception that he was involved in human rights violation is deep rooted both inside and outside India. In this context, the paper seeks to examine how the Muslim politics and Muslim voting behaviour is impacted owing to the rise of Narendra Modi as NDA's Prime Ministerial candidate in 2014. The paper raises following questions:
1) While there are dozens of major ethnic violence against Muslims prior to Gujarat 2002 and Muslims have been its major victims, what is so unique about 2002 riot that makes Gujarat Chief Minister Narender Modi such a controversial figure?
2) If Hindutva is all about Hindus and Ram Rajya, why are the BJP and Modi keen to devise special strategies to reach out to Muslim voters?
3) What are the programs and activities that the BJP and Modi have taken so far to win over Muslim voters and what has been the Muslim response to their efforts ?
4) What are the key trends that we witness in the Muslim voting behaviour in the context of Modi and Hindutva? And, what are its implications for secularism/multi- culturalism and India's coalition politics?
Paper short abstract:
This paper will consider the electoral dilemma of a large but discriminated minority in the national election next year in which one of the two major parties is led by Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujerat who had presided over, or at least condoned, a pogrom against the Muslim minority in 2002.
Paper long abstract:
Long abstract: The leaders of any minority group face a dilemma in countries where there are multi-party democratic elections: how to advise their followers how to vote when one or both of the major political parties is hostile to the minority group. This was the problem of the Tamil minority in Sri Lanka which led the Tamils eventually to a disastrous war of secession. Further afield, this was the existential threat to German Jews in the crucial election of 1932 when Hitler and the Nazis were propelled to power by a coalition majority of German voters.
For Indian Muslims, 12% of the population, the dilemma arose in the late 1980s with the loss of its majority by the Congress Party with its at least nominal attachment to secularism, and the peaceful transfer of power, first, to a coalition government and then to a coalition dominated by the Hindu nationalist BJP (Bharat Janata Party) The dilemma sharpened with the rise to leadership in that party of Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujerat state who had played a controversial role in the pogrom of Muslims there in February 2002.
This paper will survey the debate within the Muslim community as well as the attempts by Modi to win over some of the Muslim votes with promises of reconciliation and economic developent. If he and his party should win the 2014 election outright without need for a restraining coalition, what consequences or alternatives will there be for this largest Indian minority?
Paper short abstract:
This paper explores the link between election finance and the economic status of politicians contesting elections.
Paper long abstract:
Contesting elections in India is increasingly expensive, encouraging politicians to accumulate resources in order to develop their political careers. As well as collecting campaign donations, sitting legislators have an incentive to develop business interests. Elected politicians are able to access resources, including regulatory permissions, which can be used to create business opportunities. This paper uses a case study of the DMK candidates for the 2011 Tamil Nadu assembly elections to assess how politicians have developed business careers that support their electoral ambitions. A key issue raised by the paper is the way in which superior assets enable established politicians to sustain their careers and create difficulties for new entrants to politics.
Paper short abstract:
Approaching election campaigns as social practice in which campaigners act as brokers between the aspirations of politicians and voters, the paper analyzes how political actors navigate between the different and contradictory requirements of national and local politics during the 2014 LS elections.
Paper long abstract:
Elections in India's northeastern state Meghalaya are increasingly characterized by processes of regionalization and ethnicization of politics. National parties like the Indian National Congress (INC) have to navigate between the invocation of equality and unity on the national level and the affirmation of difference and distinctiveness on the regional level. This dilemma not only reflects the diversification of the Indian party system but also the contemporary global passion for difference, confronting politicians worldwide with the question of how to differ between affirming equality and administering difference. Election campaigns become a stage where topics of cultural identity, ethnicity and belonging as well as the relations between the Central State and the Northeast are addressed and utilized to mobilize political support. However, campaigns cannot be understood as a one-way process, in which certain narratives of ethnicity and identity are communicated only "from above". Political actors link their campaigns to ongoing narratives, discourses and imaginations which are produced, re-produced and changed in the everyday life of their targeted voters. Campaigns also provoke to criticize and debate contested narratives of cultural identity, diversity and difference. Drawing on field work data from research during the 2013 Meghalayan Legislative Assembly election and the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the paper approaches election campaigns as social practice in which campaigners act as brokers between the aspirations of politicians and voters, providing insights on how political actors deal with the fundamental dilemma of Indian politics and - in a larger perspective - with the paradox politics of difference and equality.
Paper short abstract:
This paper will examine the Pakistan elections of 2013 from the perspective of democratization theory and how Pakistan is an instructive case-study for this process.
Paper long abstract:
In democratization theory there is debate on how many elections are necessary to embed democracy in hybrid regimes particularly those that are fragile states. It is often said that these regimes need at least three elections before democracy is fully entrenched. In Pakistan's case its recent history, the 1990s, provides counter-factual evidence that elections per se do not necessarily lead to the consolidation of the democratic process. The paper will investigate how the elections of 2013 are different from previous ones and whether it will lead to the deepening of the democratic process. It will examine the factors that impede democratization; the specific nature of the patrimonial state and those factors that facilitate democracy; institutional developments, the role of the media, civil society and the international context. The paper will then reflect on the elections of 2013 and how the factors for and against democracy were arranged in the elections and how they influenced the results. Finally the paper will assess the democratization process, its future development and what issues are important for its further embedment in Pakistan.
Paper short abstract:
This article examines the impact of election management by bureaucrats on political parties’ electoral decision making in Pakistan’s 2013 general election, and argues that democratic legitimacy in transitional societies is undermined by the lack of institutionalisation of the electoral process.
Paper long abstract:
This article focuses on Pakistan's general election of 2013 and examines the impact of election management by bureaucrats on political parties' electoral decision making.
The electoral process is one of the primary means through which democracy is legitimised. However, before the voter makes his choice on polling day, a series of decisions are made by bureaucrats and political parties that affect the options available to the voter. By studying the Election Commission of Pakistan and its management of the 2013 general election, this paper contends that election management (including but not limited to laws and regulations, and their implementation; delimitation; scrutiny; voter registration and education; and polling day arrangements) by unelected bureaucrats, unaccountable to the public, influences the decisions that political parties make with regard to the electoral process. Ad-hoc rulings caused parties to re-think their decisions regarding candidate selection, ticket distribution, and campaigning, frequently at the last minute. As a result, even though the 2013 election was considered to be largely free and fair, the process had arguably already been compromised, calling the democratic mandate into question and creating mistrust amongst the electorate.
The paper concludes by arguing that until the election management process is transparent, institutionalised and uniformly implemented, democracy can not legitimately take root in transitional societies.
Paper short abstract:
Using an original database of familial linkages amongst electoral contestants in Punjab since 1970, and through a case study of the PTI in the 2013 elections, this paper explores how elections in the province are dominated by local level dynastic politicians.
Paper long abstract:
Using a unique and original database of familial linkages amongst the top three contestants in national and provincial assembly races in Punjab between 1970 and 2013, as well as local level case studies from across the province, this paper argues that political dynasties, held together by ties of blood and marriage, and largely drawn from the propertied elite, have been able to dominate political competition in Punjab by using their position and linkages to the state to develop and deploy effective electoral machines capable of mobilizing votes through the provision of patronage to constituents at the local level. As a result, even though Punjab's politics appears competitive, it is largely due to members of dynastic factions aggressively competing against each other using different party platforms. Simultaneously, the influence of dynastic politicians impedes the development of programmatic, cadre-based political party structures, ensuring that the pursuit of their interests trumps other concerns in political party, public policy and development-related matters, while also barring the entry of non-dynastic aspirants to public office. An examination of the PTI's electoral strategy in the 2013 elections further illustrates this point, emphasizing how dynastic politics shapes the choices available to new parties aiming to succeed in Punjab's electoral arena. The paper concludes by arguing that an investment in building organized, non-dynastic and non-familial political party structures could deliver much higher electoral returns to political parties in the future. It also identifies sources of change that could potentially lead to a decline in dynastic politics in Punjab.
Paper short abstract:
This paper will focus on the electoral campaign 2013 of the Pakistan Movement for Justice (PTI), a party which seems to have emerged as a third force in Pakistani politics. I will attempt to analyze its newfound popularity, sociology as well as the strategies adopted to attract more voters.
Paper long abstract:
This paper will focus on the electoral campaign of the Pakistan Tehreek-e Insaf (Pakistan Movement for Justice), a young party founded in 1996 by the cricketer and philanthropist Imran Khan. PTI seems to have emerged as a third force in Pakistani politics after 15 years of being a "mini-party". It has succeeded in politicizing segments of the Pakistani population (the youth, women, the westernized elite) which had long remained aloof from mainstream politics. How is that to be explained?
On the basis of a one-month fieldwork in Penjab in April/may 2013 in the framework of the general elections, and of a broader research on PTI conducted since 2007, this presentation will attempt to analyze some of the main elements characterizing the PTI campaign: the original "dispositifs de sensibilisation" (The political analyst Christophe Traïni describes them as the material supports and configurations like songs, videos, pictures, slogans, social media, etc. used to trigger emotional reactions predisposing those who feel them to join the cause), but also the sociology of the party's candidates and activists (among others educated youth, professionals and the traditional "feudals") as well as the charismatic leadership of the chairman Imran Khan which appears as one of the main elements explaining the party's popularity. Has PTI brought a new "style" in Pakistani politics? To what extent did that take place by breaking away (or not) from the traditional patronage politics?
Paper short abstract:
The 2013 elections in Pakistan marked the transition from one freely elected government to another. How do we best categorise (and therefore understand) political developments in Pakistan? Is it more appropriate to define it as a hybrid case of democracy or as a ‘diminished subtype’?
Paper long abstract:
Pakistan has had a chequered democratic history but its recently held elections marked the transition from one freely elected government to another. How do we best categorise (and therefore understand) political developments in Pakistan since 2008? Is it more appropriate to define it as a hybrid case of democracy or as a 'diminished subtype'? Scholars have identified several diminished subtypes of democracy. Do any of these subtypes increase our understanding of the nature of democracy (or authoritarianism) in Pakistan?
Paper short abstract:
This paper is an attempt to understand the causes and consequences of party-switching in Pakistan- a case that is often overlooked because party-switching is deemed to be merely symptomatic of a weakly institutionalized party system.
Paper long abstract:
Party-switching is under-studied in legislative politics, perhaps because it is perceived to be rare and irregular. This paper attempts to understand the causes and consequences of party-switching in Pakistan, a case that is often overlooked because party-switching is seen as symptomatic of a weakly-institutionalized party system. Besides filling an important informational gap in the literature about the incidence and substantive implications of party-switching in a regime undergoing a democratic transition, the argument presented makes a theoretical contribution. Party-switching in Pakistan, like in other cases, is very much the product of strategic behavior by individual politicians, a calculus of cost and benefit. But because politicians act on short-term electoral gains, their switching can potentially produce changes that may change the bargaining context of the party system with debilitating consequences for both politician and regime in the long-term. These effects understood as transaction costs are absorbed by Pakistani politicians without limiting their party switching behavior. As a result, party leaders are unable to elicit credible commitment from their legislators, an important component of party unity and regime survival.
Paper short abstract:
This paper examines the state of democracy in Bangladesh since 1991 and argues that it displays emblematic features of hybrid regimes and that a variant of delegative democracy has emerged.
Paper long abstract:
This paper is premised on two elements of the system of governance in Bangladesh, firstly, Bangladesh is considered a 'democratic' country; and secondly, regime changes have taken place periodically through competitive elections since 1991. However, the non-functioning of the parliament, absence of the rule of law, politicization of the judiciary, unabated extra judicial killings, and a growing phenomenon of enforced disappearance points to the fact that democratic consolidation have remained elusive. This paper seeks to explain this phenomenon and argues that Bangladesh displays emblematic features of 'hybrid regimes' (Larry Jay Diamond, "Thinking about Hybrid Regimes", Journal of Democracy, 13 (2):21-35, 2002). I utilize the definition expounded by Hans-Joachim Lauth that suggests that hybrid 'regimes [that] are neither a subtype of autocracies nor of democracies but a regime type on their own, encompassing those political systems that on plausible grounds cannot be classified as either autocracy or democracy'. Further exploration of the nature of the democracy in Bangladesh, this paper concludes that Bangladeshi democracy bears the defining characteristics of 'delegative democracy' - a system which 'rest[s] on the premise that whoever wins election [...] is thereby entitled to govern as he or she sees fit, constrained only by the hard facts of existing power relations and by a constitutionally limited term of office' (Guillermo A. O'Donnell, "Delegative Democracy", Journal of Democracy, 5 (1): 55-69, 1994).
Paper short abstract:
This paper will examine the campaign and results of the of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Punjab.
Paper long abstract:
The election of the Shromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP state government in 2012 surprised most seasoned observers. Remarkably, the event has attract little serious analysis or critical reflection. The return of the first non-Congress administration to power marked a major landmark in the process of political regionalisation. By examining in detail the political campaign for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and the results, this paper will assess to what extent the emergence of non-Congress coalition in Punjab represents a new, quasi-permanent political configuration. The paper will focus on four dimensions: the changing nature of Sikh politics associated with the SAD; the regional strategy of the Punjab BJP and how it shapes national politics; the efforts to revive the Punjab Congress; and the remarkable failure of Dalit politics in the state with one the highest Dalit populations in India. These dimensions, it will argue, provide cross-cutting currents that reflect major changes taking place within the state's economy and society, producing new political formations and reconfiguring existing ones