Paper short abstract:

This paper will consider the electoral dilemma of a large but discriminated minority in the national election next year in which one of the two major parties is led by Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujerat who had presided over, or at least condoned, a pogrom against the Muslim minority in 2002.

Paper long abstract:

Long abstract: The leaders of any minority group face a dilemma in countries where there are multi-party democratic elections: how to advise their followers how to vote when one or both of the major political parties is hostile to the minority group. This was the problem of the Tamil minority in Sri Lanka which led the Tamils eventually to a disastrous war of secession. Further afield, this was the existential threat to German Jews in the crucial election of 1932 when Hitler and the Nazis were propelled to power by a coalition majority of German voters.

For Indian Muslims, 12% of the population, the dilemma arose in the late 1980s with the loss of its majority by the Congress Party with its at least nominal attachment to secularism, and the peaceful transfer of power, first, to a coalition government and then to a coalition dominated by the Hindu nationalist BJP (Bharat Janata Party) The dilemma sharpened with the rise to leadership in that party of Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujerat state who had played a controversial role in the pogrom of Muslims there in February 2002.

This paper will survey the debate within the Muslim community as well as the attempts by Modi to win over some of the Muslim votes with promises of reconciliation and economic developent. If he and his party should win the 2014 election outright without need for a restraining coalition, what consequences or alternatives will there be for this largest Indian minority?