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- Convenors:
-
Ibrahim Adekunle
(University of South Africa)
Kaosarat Abolanle Quadri (Olabisi Onabanjo University)
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- Chair:
-
Olanrewaju Akinola
(Olabisi Onabanjo University,)
- Format:
- Paper panel
- Stream:
- Political change, advocacy and activism
- Location:
- CB4.8, Chancellor's Building
- Sessions:
- Wednesday 25 June, -
Time zone: Europe/London
Short Abstract
This panel explores global democratic polarisation, driven by crises of inequality, instability, and cultural fragmentation. It examines how social identities shape political behaviour, highlighting innovations and policy insights to foster resilience amid a "polycrisis" era.
Description
Democratic polarisation is intensifying across the globe, driven by intersecting crises of inequality, political instability, economic hardship, and cultural fragmentation. Social identities, shaped by religion, ethnicity, regional affiliation, socioeconomic status, and political ideologies play a central role in these dynamics, influencing political behaviour and attitudes in diverse contexts. This panel examines the global manifestations of democratic polarisation, exploring how social identity operates both as a driver of division and as a lens for understanding resilience and transformation within democratic systems.
Through case studies from varied geopolitical contexts, including the Global South and beyond, the panel considers how crises disrupt established patterns of political engagement and challenge the conventional role of social identities in electoral outcomes. The discussion highlights methodological innovations for capturing nuanced dimensions of social identity and polarisation, as well as policy lessons for fostering political stability and reducing social conflict. Framed within the broader "polycrisis" discourse, this session seeks to bridge theoretical and practical insights, offering pathways to reimagine democratic governance in times of uncertainty.
Accepted papers
Session 1 Wednesday 25 June, 2025, -Paper short abstract
This study explores how social identities (religion, ethnicity, socio-economic class, party affiliation, and age) shape democratic polarisation in Nigeria. Using survey data from the 2023 elections across six geopolitical zones, we inform strategies for social cohesion and consolidating democracy.
Paper long abstract
Democratic polarisation poses a significant challenge to political stability and social cohesion, particularly in diverse societies like Nigeria. This study examines the nuanced role of social identities such as religion, ethnicity, socio-economic class, political party affiliation, and age-group classification in shaping democratic polarisation, with a focus on the 2023 Nigerian general elections. The elections, contested by fifteen (15) political parties, revealed unexpected outcomes that disrupted long-held assumptions about the primacy of social identities in electoral dynamics.
Using a survey research design, we aim to collect data across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, ensuring a comprehensive representation of key social identity markers. Eligible voters from the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) voter registry will inform the sampling frame, and structured questionnaires, based on Gutmann’s (2009b) 10-item scale, will be adopted to assess perceptions of social identity and its influence on political behaviour. We will employ the Difference-in-Difference (DiD) methodology, leveraging variations in social identity across time and geography to estimate its impact on democratic polarisation and test for robustness using a synthetic control method.
This research provides critical insights into how social identities drive political behaviour and democratic fragmentation in Nigeria. The findings will inform strategies to mitigate polarisation-driven conflicts, foster social cohesion, and enhance policy frameworks for democratic engagement. Additionally, the study will contribute to methodological advancements by incorporating nuanced metrics for assessing social identities and their decomposition effects on democratic outcomes, offering broader implications for political economics literature and governance practices
Paper short abstract
This study deploy a historical-narrative approach, to enlighten knowledge of how party, and identity politics dynamics disrupt two-party domination and polarisation in fragile democracies.
Paper long abstract
Two-party dominated systems regularly feature in many emerging democracies, even when the electoral laws prescribe multipartyism. Since Nigeria initiated democratisation in 1999, this trend has been evident, with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) winning all presidential elections until 2015. The narrative changed as a coalition of forces formed the All-Progressives Congress (APC) and won the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections. The 2023 elections presented new posers to what is known about two-party dominated systems and expectations of factors that aid smaller parties at elections. The Labour Party (LP) became a third force, challenging the long-held and taken-for-granted hegemony of the APC and the PDP. The LP’s record of winning 25 percent of the presidential votes and the same number of states as the APC and PDP, reinforced multipartyism as democratically desirable. Among other factors, the combination of the LP presidential candidate’s youthful and ethnic identity endeared him to the youths - who were keen for a change in status quo - and the Igbo ethnic group, with a history of marginalisation. Although it came third, behind the APC and PDP, the LP’s heroics defied prior pundits. Events since then have tempered the LP’s rise, raising questions about the sustenance of a third force. This study explores this phenomenon, dissecting what the LP’s emergence tells us about how contextual conditions of emerging democracies create incentives and constraints for the emergence and sustainability of smaller parties. We deploy a historical-narrative approach, enlightening knowledge of party, and identity politics dynamics in fragile democracies.
Paper short abstract
Democratic polarization, fueled by identity politics, media, and governance, threatens Nigeria’s stability. This study explores historical roots, elite exploitation, and media influence on voter behavior and national integration. It examines democratic divisions in a diverse society like Nigeria.
Paper long abstract
Democracy, often celebrated as the least objectionable system of governance, is increasingly under threat globally, with nations such as the United States, Brazil, India, Poland, Venezuela, Turkey, and Nigeria experiencing growing democratic polarization. Characterized by divisions along ideological, economic, and cultural lines, polarization not only undermines democratic governance but also threatens national stability. In Nigeria, the 1914 amalgamation of the Northern and Southern Protectorates marked the birth of a state, yet questions about its unity persist. Even as Nigeria approaches the 25th year of its fourth democratic dispensation in 2025, political tensions rooted in ethnic, religious, and regional identities continue to polarize its democratic space, influencing electoral processes, governance, and national unity.
While democratic polarization is a global phenomenon, its nature and extent vary across contexts. This study investigates the historical roots of cultural fragmentation in Nigeria, tracing its evolution through colonial legacies, post-independence politics, and the rise of identity-based political alignments. It examines how political elites exploit these divisions for electoral gains, often at the expense of cohesion. Additionally, the study applies McCoy's (2019) framework of polarization (politicians, opposition, and national identity and citizenship rights) to analyze the role of media and communication in shaping voter behavior, identity politics, electoral outcomes, trust, and national integration in Nigeria.
This study situates Nigeria’s experience within the broader discourse of global democratic polarization, offering critical insights into the interplay between cultural fragmentation and democracy in a developing nation.