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Paper short abstract:

This study deploy a historical-narrative approach, to enlighten knowledge of how party, and identity politics dynamics disrupt two-party domination and polarisation in fragile democracies.

Paper long abstract:

Two-party dominated systems regularly feature in many emerging democracies, even when the electoral laws prescribe multipartyism. Since Nigeria initiated democratisation in 1999, this trend has been evident, with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) winning all presidential elections until 2015. The narrative changed as a coalition of forces formed the All-Progressives Congress (APC) and won the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections. The 2023 elections presented new posers to what is known about two-party dominated systems and expectations of factors that aid smaller parties at elections. The Labour Party (LP) became a third force, challenging the long-held and taken-for-granted hegemony of the APC and the PDP. The LP’s record of winning 25 percent of the presidential votes and the same number of states as the APC and PDP, reinforced multipartyism as democratically desirable. Among other factors, the combination of the LP presidential candidate’s youthful and ethnic identity endeared him to the youths - who were keen for a change in status quo - and the Igbo ethnic group, with a history of marginalisation. Although it came third, behind the APC and PDP, the LP’s heroics defied prior pundits. Events since then have tempered the LP’s rise, raising questions about the sustenance of a third force. This study explores this phenomenon, dissecting what the LP’s emergence tells us about how contextual conditions of emerging democracies create incentives and constraints for the emergence and sustainability of smaller parties. We deploy a historical-narrative approach, enlightening knowledge of party, and identity politics dynamics in fragile democracies.