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Paper short abstract:

This study explores how social identities (religion, ethnicity, socio-economic class, party affiliation, and age) shape democratic polarisation in Nigeria. Using survey data from the 2023 elections across six geopolitical zones, we inform strategies for social cohesion and consolidating democracy.

Paper long abstract:

Democratic polarisation poses a significant challenge to political stability and social cohesion, particularly in diverse societies like Nigeria. This study examines the nuanced role of social identities such as religion, ethnicity, socio-economic class, political party affiliation, and age-group classification in shaping democratic polarisation, with a focus on the 2023 Nigerian general elections. The elections, contested by fifteen (15) political parties, revealed unexpected outcomes that disrupted long-held assumptions about the primacy of social identities in electoral dynamics.

Using a survey research design, we aim to collect data across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, ensuring a comprehensive representation of key social identity markers. Eligible voters from the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) voter registry will inform the sampling frame, and structured questionnaires, based on Gutmann’s (2009b) 10-item scale, will be adopted to assess perceptions of social identity and its influence on political behaviour. We will employ the Difference-in-Difference (DiD) methodology, leveraging variations in social identity across time and geography to estimate its impact on democratic polarisation and test for robustness using a synthetic control method.

This research provides critical insights into how social identities drive political behaviour and democratic fragmentation in Nigeria. The findings will inform strategies to mitigate polarisation-driven conflicts, foster social cohesion, and enhance policy frameworks for democratic engagement. Additionally, the study will contribute to methodological advancements by incorporating nuanced metrics for assessing social identities and their decomposition effects on democratic outcomes, offering broader implications for political economics literature and governance practices