Paper short abstract:

I would bring perspectives from the remote and rural areas of northern Pakistan. I will show how development projects ignite nostalgia and futurist aspirations in rural communities whilst converging past and future, and make it challenging to locate authenticity and indigeneity in rural areas.

Paper long abstract:

In November 2023, BBC revealed a list of 100 influential women of 2023 from around the world. The list includes Afroze-Numa, a Wakhi shepherdess from the remote and mountainous Shimshal Valley in northern Pakistan. Afroze-Numa is one of the last Wakhi Shepherdesses in the region, who has been taking care of goats, yaks, and sheep for almost three decades. Recently, there have been changes in rural landscapes and ecology, particularly after the construction of the Shimshal link road which connects the valley with urban areas and the rest of the world.

Following the story of Afroze-Numa and the development of the Shimshal link road in northern Pakistan, this paper revolves around some of the key themes in contemporary development research, such as past, future, and their interconnectedness in changing rural societies. I argue that local development actors like Shimshal Nature Trust and Aga Khan Rural Support Programme constantly strive to bridge tradition and modern, local and global, and nostalgia and future, through development projects like the Shimshal link road in rural communities. However, given the increasing socio-cultural exchange and out migration because of these development projects, researchers and locals struggle to locate ‘authenticity’ and indigeneity in rural communities. The problem persists as a gap in contemporary development research and calls for the reconsideration of how we define authenticity and can sustain indigeneity in rapidly changing rural societies. Thus, the discussion also presents potential challenges and questions related to the past and future that require further attention in development research.

Paper short abstract:

We will share evidence from refugees in Uganda and Kenya and a theoretical framework of post-protection, drawing on post-development and other critical theory, to support the interrogation of anticipation within humanitarian and development studies and practice.

Paper long abstract:

The concept of time is central to institutional humanitarian protection, conceived of in relation to both ‘timely responses’ to emerging crises and anticipatory action to mitigate the impact of future events. Within refugee studies, the temporalities of forced migration and displacement have been contrasted with ‘humanitarian time’ and the so-called ‘humanitarian-development gap’ prevailing across years and even decades for many displaced people. The situation of growing numbers of refugees worldwide living in protracted, sometimes lifelong, displacement challenges the assumptions of linear time and lives upon which protection is premised. In this reality, the development interventions so urgently needed may in fact never manifest, regardless of the length of displacement. At the same time, humanitarian and development efforts to address these dynamics is compromised by trends such as the global polycrisis, enhanced border regimes, and the ‘responsibilisation’ of refugees through self-reliance strategies.

In this paper, we draw on our research with refugees in Uganda and Kenya and with internally displaced people in South Sudan to reimagine a refugee protection that is future-oriented and evidence-based, including through the use of conflict and weather forecasting. These practices – as undertaken by both humanitarian and development actors and displaced communities themselves – represent different forms of anticipation. They also present an opportunity to interrogate who 'protects' and how protection practices, development assistance, and even the notion of time is constructed in advance of actual events, illustrating an important critical social science perspective rarely present in development discourse or within research on anticipatory action.

Paper short abstract:

This paper explores how histories of water systems can be mobilized to train engineers. The paper contextualizes teaching efforts, showing how training technical skills and exploring ideas on future and development can be combined for engineers – which will realize water developments in any future.

Paper long abstract:

The resource water is consistently linked to human development. Current water infrastructure confronts us with the continuous presence of (former and current) others, as much as our successors will encounter our choices in their future. Water systems have been continuously adapted through interactions between different agents. Climatic changes express the agency of water differently, redistributing effects of floods and droughts. How to account for future designs being able to deal with change is both a theoretical challenge and something that should be translated into hydraulic properties and management arrangements. Historical water systems show the diversity of ideas and options that future water systems could embrace. This paper explores how developmental histories of water systems can be used to train water engineers, who are to realize water-related developments in any future. Two teaching settings suggest how to combine training technical skills and exploring future, foresight and development for engineers. Setting 1 presents the Irrigation Management Game was developed in the 1980s to help managers to recognize farmer strategies in relation to water delivery. I play the IMG with students, to let them experience that irrigation settings are realized through actions that are always partially surprising. Setting 2 discusses a project, in which I ask students to design an irrigation system, asking explicitly how future changes that could disrupt the system are included in the design (irrigators taking water out of turn, crops changing, etcetera). After all, all agents will enact their ideas now and in the future on the water system.

Paper short abstract:

This paper examines social and environmental safeguards as anticipatory assemblages where actors, norms and artifacts converge to foresee risks in international development projects. It explores how safeguards shape governance practices, navigating tensions between inclusion, power, and uncertainty.

Paper long abstract:

Social and environmental safeguards (SES) are central to international development, designed to anticipate and mitigate socio-environmental risks. This paper conceptualizes SES as anticipatory assemblages, where heterogeneous elements—material artifacts (e.g., checklists, algorithms), human actors (e.g., experts, indigenous representatives), and norms (e.g., international laws, customary practices)—converge to operationalize governance. Drawing on assemblage theory and the literature on anticipation, the paper examines how SES are shaped by future-oriented logics. Safeguards attempt to stabilize uncertainty by translating imagined risks into actionable practices. Yet, these processes reveal tensions: anticipatory tools often privilege technocratic expertise, sidelining local and Indigenous knowledge, while safeguards' material artifacts (e.g., monitoring frameworks) both enable and constrain participatory governance. Using ethnographic insights from safeguard implementation in diverse contexts, the paper explores moments of success and failure within these assemblages. It highlights cases where safeguards foster inclusivity and adaptability but also instances of procedural overload, fragmentation, and exclusion. The findings emphasize that while anticipatory assemblages can serve as tools for navigating crises, they are also sites of contestation, where competing priorities and power asymmetries shape outcomes. By framing safeguards as anticipatory assemblages, the paper offers a novel lens for understanding the intersection of governance, risk, and futures in international development. It calls for more reflexive practices that prioritize inclusivity, contextual adaptability, and transparency in the design and deployment of safeguards.

Paper short abstract:

Public Service Innovations (PSIs) move with socio-technical problems of the realm but miss out on anticipating futures. This paper presents a framework for foresight-based PSIs.

Paper long abstract:

Public Service Innovations (PSIs) work along two axes- new users’ needs and/ or new public services produced. However, the evolution of innovation in public services has been through New Public Administration, where citizens were treated as consumers, to co-creation of public services and Public Service Logic (PSL), which implies that citizens are integral to the creation of public services.

he paper uses the emerging problem of Polycystic Ovarian Syndrome (PCOS) and Endometriosis as an example of a public health issue that is on the rise and currently on the horizon, which if left unchecked will have implications for all walks of life as it impacts fertility, women participation in the workforce, and there is no cure of it currently.

An important aspect of the paradigm of PSIs is that it allows creative out-of-the-box solutions, but due to the path dependency of the end-users’ socio-technical context, they lack any foresight and anticipatory capabilities.

This paper fuses anticipatory governance and PSIs to develop a framework for policies with foresight. It is a four-step process starting with assessing the baseline socio-technical context of the end-users. Next, scanning the horizon for emerging trends and performing the futures wheel analysis for the first, second, and third-order consequences of the emerging problem. Then, mapping the stakeholder interests and aligning the ones whose interests will become bigger in the future. And in the end, designing the policy along with the end-users and the aligned stakeholders to solve the problem before it becomes too big to address.

Paper short abstract:

We (1) link development studies to futures thinking and evaluative practice, (2) to explore Gen-AI enhanced causal mapping of ideas about the future, and (3) illustrate this through analysis of Navigating the Polycrisis: mapping the futures of capitalism and the earth by M J Albert.

Paper long abstract:

This paper contributes to (re)defining development studies as a discipline for integrated analysis of normative, historical, and practical visions of human progress and their outcomes from local to global levels. It does so in three steps. First, it goes beyond the normal positioning of development studies relative to other social science disciplines (economics, sociology, politics etc) by emphasising its relationship to history, management studies, futures/foresight thinking, and evaluative practice. Second, it draws on a realist view of complexity to highlight the analytical importance of mapping the implicit and explicit causal claims underpinning shared mental models of human development and global change. Cognitive causal mapping is gaining some traction in evaluative practice, but mostly by focusing on explaining past actions. Meanwhile, both scenario building and backcasting methods in futures/foresight thinking extend beyond quantitative forecasting to include qualitative analysis. However, rigorous qualitative data analysis of the causal thinking underpinning shared visions of the future remains rare. The paper explores scope for using GenAI-enhanced causal mapping as a tool to address this gap, suggesting it can usefully build upon and inform core issues and debates within development studies. Third, the paper presents preliminary causal mapping of Michael Albert’s (2024) ‘Navigating the Polycrisis: mapping the futures of capitalism and the earth’ as a case study. This aims to clarify and visualise its core arguments, and to facilitate more systematic comparison with other future-oriented studies.

Paper short abstract:

I aim to bring insights on youth emigration trends in Nigeria, exploring anticipatory development strategies that leverage diaspora contributions for sustainable social transformation.

Paper long abstract:

This study examines the phenomenon of youth emigration, colloquially termed "Japa," in Nigeria, focusing on its implications for anticipatory development from 2024 to 2034. As economic instability, political unrest, and social challenges drive young Nigerians to seek opportunities abroad, understanding the motivations and consequences of this trend is crucial for shaping future development policies. Utilizing a scenario planning approach, the research explores various potential futures influenced by youth emigration patterns, analyzing how these trajectories could affect Nigeria's socio-economic landscape and human capital development.

The study identifies key drivers of emigration, including educational aspirations, job prospects, and safety concerns, while also considering the impact of remittances on local economies. By engaging with stakeholders, including policymakers, educators, and community leaders, the research aims to foster a comprehensive understanding of how to harness the potential of the Nigerian diaspora for national development. Additionally, the study investigates the role of Indigenous knowledge and community engagement in addressing the root causes of emigration, proposing strategies that align with local values and aspirations. Ultimately, this research seeks to contribute to the discourse on brain drain and social transformation in Nigeria, advocating for policies that not only mitigate the negative impacts of youth emigration but also leverage the skills and resources of emigrants for sustainable development. By envisioning multiple scenarios for the future, the study aims to provide actionable insights for stakeholders to navigate the complexities of youth migration and its implications for Nigeria's development trajectory.