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Accepted Paper:

"Japa" futures: anticipatory development and youth emigration patterns in Nigeria - a scenario planning approach to brain drain and social transformation (2024-2034)  
Abayomi Ogunsola

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Paper short abstract:

I aim to bring insights on youth emigration trends in Nigeria, exploring anticipatory development strategies that leverage diaspora contributions for sustainable social transformation.

Paper long abstract:

This study examines the phenomenon of youth emigration, colloquially termed "Japa," in Nigeria, focusing on its implications for anticipatory development from 2024 to 2034. As economic instability, political unrest, and social challenges drive young Nigerians to seek opportunities abroad, understanding the motivations and consequences of this trend is crucial for shaping future development policies. Utilizing a scenario planning approach, the research explores various potential futures influenced by youth emigration patterns, analyzing how these trajectories could affect Nigeria's socio-economic landscape and human capital development.

The study identifies key drivers of emigration, including educational aspirations, job prospects, and safety concerns, while also considering the impact of remittances on local economies. By engaging with stakeholders, including policymakers, educators, and community leaders, the research aims to foster a comprehensive understanding of how to harness the potential of the Nigerian diaspora for national development. Additionally, the study investigates the role of Indigenous knowledge and community engagement in addressing the root causes of emigration, proposing strategies that align with local values and aspirations. Ultimately, this research seeks to contribute to the discourse on brain drain and social transformation in Nigeria, advocating for policies that not only mitigate the negative impacts of youth emigration but also leverage the skills and resources of emigrants for sustainable development. By envisioning multiple scenarios for the future, the study aims to provide actionable insights for stakeholders to navigate the complexities of youth migration and its implications for Nigeria's development trajectory.

Panel P28
Linking development with futures studies: contested social science perspectives on anticipation
  Session 2