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Paper short abstract:

We (1) link development studies to futures thinking and evaluative practice, (2) to explore Gen-AI enhanced causal mapping of ideas about the future, and (3) illustrate this through analysis of Navigating the Polycrisis: mapping the futures of capitalism and the earth by M J Albert.

Paper long abstract:

This paper contributes to (re)defining development studies as a discipline for integrated analysis of normative, historical, and practical visions of human progress and their outcomes from local to global levels. It does so in three steps. First, it goes beyond the normal positioning of development studies relative to other social science disciplines (economics, sociology, politics etc) by emphasising its relationship to history, management studies, futures/foresight thinking, and evaluative practice. Second, it draws on a realist view of complexity to highlight the analytical importance of mapping the implicit and explicit causal claims underpinning shared mental models of human development and global change. Cognitive causal mapping is gaining some traction in evaluative practice, but mostly by focusing on explaining past actions. Meanwhile, both scenario building and backcasting methods in futures/foresight thinking extend beyond quantitative forecasting to include qualitative analysis. However, rigorous qualitative data analysis of the causal thinking underpinning shared visions of the future remains rare. The paper explores scope for using GenAI-enhanced causal mapping as a tool to address this gap, suggesting it can usefully build upon and inform core issues and debates within development studies. Third, the paper presents preliminary causal mapping of Michael Albert’s (2024) ‘Navigating the Polycrisis: mapping the futures of capitalism and the earth’ as a case study. This aims to clarify and visualise its core arguments, and to facilitate more systematic comparison with other future-oriented studies.