- Convenors:
-
Kristina Konstantinova
(National Center for Space Research and Technology)
Michael Brody (American University)
Pengshan Pan (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
Send message to Convenors
- Format:
- Roundtable
- Mode:
- Face-to-face part of the conference
- Theme:
- Economics
- Location:
- Sigur (Room 503)
- Sessions:
- Wednesday 19 November, -
Time zone: America/New_York
Abstract
The Central Asian region stands at the crossroads of a growing water crisis driven by the intertwined impacts of climate change, upstream infrastructure developments, and shifting economic demands. Nowhere are these tensions more acutely felt than in the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus, which has become a central policy and research concern for sustainable development in Central Asia. This roundtable, chaired by Professor Michael Brody of American University, will bring together scholars, policymakers, and practitioners to address the urgent need for integrated water governance in the face of mounting cross-sectoral demands.
Climate change is already significantly reducing glacial runoff and altering hydrological cycles in Central Asia, threatening long-term water availability across the region. This ecological stress is compounded by geopolitical developments such as the ongoing construction of the Kushtepa Canal in northern Afghanistan. This major diversion project on the Amu Darya threatens to reduce transboundary water flows to Uzbekistan and other downstream countries, potentially intensifying regional competition over water resources.
Uzbekistan, as the most populous country in the region and a major agricultural producer, faces mounting pressure to ensure water security not only for food production but increasingly for its rapidly growing industrial and energy sectors. The country’s economic modernization strategy includes major investments in mining and metallurgy—both highly water-intensive industries—as well as emerging energy pathways such as hydrogen production and nuclear energy. These developments risk placing additional, and potentially competing, claims on finite water resources.
This roundtable will examine the policy, institutional, and technological responses needed to balance these competing demands. Special attention will be given to how regional and national strategies can account for trade-offs and synergies among water, energy, and food systems. We will also explore how international cooperation, data transparency, and integrated planning tools can help mitigate potential conflicts and promote sustainable water allocation.
By fostering a multidisciplinary dialogue that bridges environmental science, development economics, and regional studies, the session will contribute to building a shared understanding of the WEF nexus in Central Asia. The discussion will highlight the importance of adaptive governance, investment in water-saving technologies, and regional diplomacy in ensuring resilience and stability in the face of climate and geopolitical pressures.
This timely roundtable aims to inform both scholarly debate and policy innovation at a critical juncture for Central Asia’s future.
Accepted contributions
Session 1 Wednesday 19 November, 2025, -Abstract
This paper explores how communities in Kazakhstan are experiencing non-economic loss (NEL) from climate change impacts that can’t be captured by financial measures but are deeply felt. Based on qualitative fieldwork and interviews conducted in 2024-2025 across three regions (South, West, and North Kazakhstan). The results aim to illustrate the experiences and lived realities under which different households and social groups manage climatic stressors, the resulting individual, societal, and environmental impacts, and the consequences of not being able to adapt to climate change and unavoidable residual risk. I argue that to address non-economic losses, it is necessary to first understand climate risks and threats to communities. Then, institutions need to employ and deliver participatory, inclusive, and human-rights based approaches to avert, minimize, and address NELs. Additionally, existing inequalities and skewed power dynamics may exclude certain socially marginalized groups if not considered. This paper is based on published materials, including the UNFCCC technical paper on non-economic losses (2013 and 2024 updates).
Abstract
This paper explores the effects of anthropogenic environmental change and climate-induced water scarcity on the livelihoods of farmers in the Jabbor Rasulov district (formerly Proletarsk), located in the Sughd region of northern Tajikistan. Drawing on empirical data from fieldwork conducted in 2023 and 2024 and desk research on water management in the Fergana Valley, the study investigates how local farmers adapt to growing uncertainty in water availability. Particular attention is given to informal arrangements and mutual agreements among farmers to regulate access to groundwater.
The analysis situates these contemporary coping strategies within the broader historical trajectory of Soviet-era irrigation expansion, which established new settlements and engineered large-scale irrigation systems across administrative boundaries. The case of former Proletarsk illustrates how legacies of Soviet modernisation continue to shape current efforts to rescale irrigation infrastructure in ways that are sustainable and responsive to local conditions.
Furthermore, the paper examines how competing demands across the water-energy-agriculture nexus, including the prioritisation of hydropower generation and regional energy security, affect irrigation flows and deepen the vulnerability of downstream farming communities. These tensions exacerbate the existing challenges of water governance in transboundary and ethnically diverse areas such as the Fergana Valley, where sectoral interests are often misaligned with local agricultural needs.
Abstract
Climate change poses a significant threat to Central Asia. Situated in already hot and arid region, Central Asian states face significant economic, social, and political challenges. Apart from the energy-rich Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, increased heat extremes and declining precipitation are likely to destabilize the region's 83 million people, most of whom rely on agriculture for their livelihoods. This study examines the conflict potential of the Central Asian states based on changing climatic conditions that will make survival challenging by the middle of this century. We argue that the probability of conflict will be greater in countries that are more impacted by global warming but are less prepared to cope with its challenges. Drawing on both quantitative data and regional case studies, this article provides a more comprehensive approach to evaluating the region’s vulnerability to and preparedness for the impacts of climate change and the associated conflict potential.