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Abstract

This paper explores the effects of anthropogenic environmental change and climate-induced water scarcity on the livelihoods of farmers in the Jabbor Rasulov district (formerly Proletarsk), located in the Sughd region of northern Tajikistan. Drawing on empirical data from fieldwork conducted in 2023 and 2024 and desk research on water management in the Fergana Valley, the study investigates how local farmers adapt to growing uncertainty in water availability. Particular attention is given to informal arrangements and mutual agreements among farmers to regulate access to groundwater.

The analysis situates these contemporary coping strategies within the broader historical trajectory of Soviet-era irrigation expansion, which established new settlements and engineered large-scale irrigation systems across administrative boundaries. The case of former Proletarsk illustrates how legacies of Soviet modernisation continue to shape current efforts to rescale irrigation infrastructure in ways that are sustainable and responsive to local conditions.

Furthermore, the paper examines how competing demands across the water-energy-agriculture nexus, including the prioritisation of hydropower generation and regional energy security, affect irrigation flows and deepen the vulnerability of downstream farming communities. These tensions exacerbate the existing challenges of water governance in transboundary and ethnically diverse areas such as the Fergana Valley, where sectoral interests are often misaligned with local agricultural needs.