Send message to Contributor

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to Central Asia. Situated in already hot and arid region, Central Asian states face significant economic, social, and political challenges. Apart from the energy-rich Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, increased heat extremes and declining precipitation are likely to destabilize the region's 83 million people, most of whom rely on agriculture for their livelihoods. This study examines the conflict potential of the Central Asian states based on changing climatic conditions that will make survival challenging by the middle of this century. We argue that the probability of conflict will be greater in countries that are more impacted by global warming but are less prepared to cope with its challenges. Drawing on both quantitative data and regional case studies, this article provides a more comprehensive approach to evaluating the region’s vulnerability to and preparedness for the impacts of climate change and the associated conflict potential.