Paper short abstract

There has been much discussion in recent years of the emergence of a New Cold War between China and the US in particular. This paper examines the networkality and territoriality of the New Cold War in Africa. Recent developments in Zambia are explored, as are those in the Sahel.

Paper long abstract

There has been much discussion in recent years of the emergence of a New Cold War between China and the US in particular. This competition is often thought to revolve around networks rather than territories, but this now appears to be changing. This paper examines the networkality and territoriality of the New Cold War in Africa. In particular it engages with ideas around omni-alignment, Chinese “webpower” and American use of “weaponised interdependence”. Recent developments in Zambia are explored, as are those in the Sahel. The paper explores the dynamics of territorial and network competition and counter movements and reactions to them and how national political actors leverage and negotiate external inducements, pressures and punishments. The re-emergence of military regimes on the continent is explored as is the idea of the simultaneous decline of Chinese and American influence in particular, even as other powers such as Russia deepen their engagement. The long-term implications of these power reconfigurations are explored, as are some of the potential economic impacts. Even as globalisation and network imbrication complicates alignment with different poles in the global political economy, to the exclusion of others, in some cases through “tariffication as sanction” policies countries such as South Africa are forced to chose sides often resulting in the long-term decline of American influence.

Paper short abstract

We explore how oscillating & ambiguous US diplomatic policies toward Cameroon & Congo-Brazzaville during the 'New Cold War' have enabled political elites to secure concessions & consolidate power despite regional pressures, political opposition, and revived Pan-African & nonaligned movements.

Paper long abstract

This article examines recent recalibrations in US policy toward Cameroon and Congo-Brazzaville within the geopolitical context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the wider emergence of a so-called ‘New Cold War’ (see Foster, Ross, & Veneziale 2025), understood as the conjunction of US economic decline, its continued military primacy, China’s decades-long rising economic hegemony, and a multipolar capitalist order. We argue that oscillations in US diplomatic postures created opportunities for Central African governing elites to navigate (through strategic inaction, symbolic concessions, and unbridled state violence) competing interests and, ultimately, to reinforce their domestic authority, despite significant political resistance. These dynamics are shaped by regional transmission effects of the Ukraine conflict, including sharp increases in wheat and fertiliser prices, and by the contemporary revivals of Pan-African and nonaligned movements. In Cameroon, diplomatic signals shifted from calls for punitive measures and condemnations of state repression, to reaffirmations of US-led counterinsurgency partnerships, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 2025 congratulatory call to President Paul Biya. In Brazzaville, a rapid transition occurred between President Donald Trump’s accusations and travel ban, and subsequent statements of cooperation by senior US diplomats as Brazzaville conceded to US pressures to endorse a Rwanda–DRC security agreement, grant access to strategic resources, and prepare an official visit by President Denis Sassou Nguesso. Political elites in both countries leveraged US ambiguities to consolidate their power within an increasingly authoritarian and multipolar world, and, importantly, a media-saturated global landscape that overlooks the politics of the Central African region almost entirely.

Paper short abstract

Analyzing Ethiopia’s role in aid dynamics, this paper examines how local actors exercise agency amid donor rivalries. Using interviews and historical data, it compares Cold War shifts with modern Chinese and Turkish aid, highlighting how recipients navigate evolving global development systems.

Paper long abstract

While scholarship on foreign aid often prioritizes donor motivations and rivalries, local recipient agency remains under-researched. This paper addresses this gap through a historicized analysis of how foreign development programs manifest in Ethiopia and how local actors navigate these processes.

Ethiopia serves as a critical case study due to its shifting geopolitical alignment—from its central role in the Global Cold War to its current membership in BRICS. This history provides a unique lens through which to examine local agency amidst both traditional and "new" Cold War dynamics. Recently, China and Türkiye have emerged as pivotal non-Western donors, leveraging Ethiopia’s status as the African Union’s headquarters to deepen political and economic ties. Through massive infrastructure investments and industrial parks, both nations have intensified their aid efforts, with Türkiye and China providing approximately $15.9 billion and $6.2 billion respectively between 2015 and 2021.

Utilizing a qualitative approach, this study draws on elite interviews with Ethiopian officials and Chinese and Turkish aid practitioners, supplemented by policy document analysis. By comparing contemporary non-Western modalities with past Western aid practices, the paper highlights strategic parallels and divergences across eras, ultimately contributing to a more nuanced understanding of recipient agency in international relations.

Paper short abstract

This paper explores both the challenges and opportunities for industrial diversification in Africa under the current conjuncture with a focus on the possibilities of the AfCFTA and the impact of China and the BRICS. It explores vectors of possibility and constraint in the emerging (dis)order.

Paper long abstract

The current era of hyper-nationalism, populism and crisis has many regressive dimensions to it, including destructive tariffication which could be consider a form of “demolition geoeconomics” in that it undermines developing countries’ economies and the current international trading order. However, the current conjuncture also opens up possibilities to mitigate, if not escape from, underdevelopment. For example, as a result of the gridlock in the WTO Indonesia has been able to implement a ban on export of raw nickel, resulting in much greater value capture domestically. “Critical minerals” are increasingly in demand globally and harvesting rents from resource extraction and processing opens up possibilities for greater industrial diversification, not just from moving up the value chain, but generating resources to create new ones, which may be more nationally or regionally-focussed in the first instance. In Africa the implementation of the Continental Free Trade Agreement offers a potentially conducive environment for this reorientation. This paper explores both the challenges and opportunities for industrial diversification in Africa under the current conjuncture with a focus on the possibilities of the AfCFTA and the impact of China and the BRICS in particular. It explores vectors of possibility and constraint in the emerging international (dis)order and the possibilities of moving from African agency to power in industrial development.

Paper short abstract

This paper explores China’s influence in Africa through the concept of ‘webpower’; a framework that captures the primary vectors of influence that China uses to express its power and construct what we call a “govosphere”. The framework is illustrated by examining China’s influence in Ethiopia.

Paper long abstract

How does China build politico-economic power globally, and in Africa in particular? There has been significant debate in the literature about whether China’s global geostrategy is centrally coordinated or more diffuse and heterogeneous in nature. This paper explores the enmeshed geopolitical and geoeconomic characteristics of China’s influence in Africa through the development and deployment of the concept of ‘webpower’; a framework that captures the primary vectors of influence the party-state uses to express/extend its power, and reshape the world system. Webpower is understood as a geopolitical/geoeconomic manifestation of Chinese state capitalism; one that seeks to align and enroll Southern economies, in particular, into a Sinocentric orbit or what we call a “govosphere”. The paper first situates the approach within the context of debates and dialogues on "new" state capitalisms and the "Second Cold War", and then introduces and develops the webpower framework. The framework is illustrated by first examining the drivers of webpower that emanate from China's party-state apparatus, and then assessing webpower's development implications in Africa using evidence from Ethiopia. Webpower captures the idea that central coordination/steering co-exists with more diffuse action by actors within Chinese policy and (inter)national economic circles, and with significant, long-term implications for development dynamics in Africa as the govosphere widens and deepens.