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Paper short abstract

We explore how oscillating & ambiguous US diplomatic policies toward Cameroon & Congo-Brazzaville during the 'New Cold War' have enabled political elites to secure concessions & consolidate power despite regional pressures, political opposition, and revived Pan-African & nonaligned movements.

Paper long abstract

This article examines recent recalibrations in US policy toward Cameroon and Congo-Brazzaville within the geopolitical context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the wider emergence of a so-called ‘New Cold War’ (see Foster, Ross, & Veneziale 2025), understood as the conjunction of US economic decline, its continued military primacy, China’s decades-long rising economic hegemony, and a multipolar capitalist order. We argue that oscillations in US diplomatic postures created opportunities for Central African governing elites to navigate (through strategic inaction, symbolic concessions, and unbridled state violence) competing interests and, ultimately, to reinforce their domestic authority, despite significant political resistance. These dynamics are shaped by regional transmission effects of the Ukraine conflict, including sharp increases in wheat and fertiliser prices, and by the contemporary revivals of Pan-African and nonaligned movements. In Cameroon, diplomatic signals shifted from calls for punitive measures and condemnations of state repression, to reaffirmations of US-led counterinsurgency partnerships, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 2025 congratulatory call to President Paul Biya. In Brazzaville, a rapid transition occurred between President Donald Trump’s accusations and travel ban, and subsequent statements of cooperation by senior US diplomats as Brazzaville conceded to US pressures to endorse a Rwanda–DRC security agreement, grant access to strategic resources, and prepare an official visit by President Denis Sassou Nguesso. Political elites in both countries leveraged US ambiguities to consolidate their power within an increasingly authoritarian and multipolar world, and, importantly, a media-saturated global landscape that overlooks the politics of the Central African region almost entirely.