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Accepted Paper:
Our study identifies the relationship between climate change and food security in Africa (Malawi) using econometric analysis to provide policy insights for sustainable food production.
Sameen Zafar
(Lahore University of Management Sciences)
Using average temperature and rainfall as a proxy for climate change and a variable for disasters (floods), we investigate the effect of climate change and disasters on food insecurity in Malawi.
Paper long abstract:
Climate change is a worldwide concern which affects economies trying to establish a strong foothold in food security and sustainable agricultural food systems. Climate change can worsen unsustainable food systems by directly impacting soil fertility, rainfall patterns, crop yields and food production, food-nutrient and anti-nutrient composition, and nutrient bioavailability. Widespread food insecurity can slow the progress of low-income economies dependent on agriculture. Using average temperature and rainfall as a proxy for climate change and a variable for disasters (floods), we investigate the effect of climate change and disasters on household-level experiential food insecurity in Malawi (a low-income country), along with other household-level determinants of food insecurity. Malawi is one of the poorest countries in the world and the economy is heavily dependent on agriculture and is vulnerable to climatic shocks. We conduct econometric estimations of the determinants of food insecurity using household data from the Third and Fourth Integrated Household Surveys for Malawi (for 2010-11 and for 2016-17). We use probit modelling analysis and find that the education level of the household head, household size, food aid and vulnerability to disasters like floods are important drivers of food insecurity among Malawian households. In addition, average temperature increase significantly affects crop yields. Our analyses enhance the international food policy debate in the current context of sustainable development.