Paper short abstract:

Agriculture in China significantly contributes to greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions. Reducing emissions and increasing production efficiency for ~300 million smallholder farmers can be achieved through improved farming practices, requiring policies that support and incentivise transition.

Paper long abstract:

China contributes a third of the world’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with 17% emitted through agricultural practices. Over 300 million smallholder farmers provide food security, but face challenges to farming resulting from climate change and pollution, including erratic rainfall, temperature changes and ozone pollution. Reducing emissions from agriculture while increasing production efficiency is crucial for future food security and achieving China’s goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. Using a mixed methods approach including modelling, interviews and questionnaires, we identify changes in agricultural practices that will enable reductions in emissions, and the barriers and opportunities to adoption of these practices in smallholder systems. Between 2018 and 2030 we project an 18% increase in total emissions from agriculture. This is driven by a 2% per capita increase in meat consumption, with corresponding increases in livestock numbers and emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management and application. Emissions from rice and residue burning are also contributing factors. In addition to demand-side measures (dietary changes and reducing food waste), agricultural methods to reduce emissions include improved manure management, efficient fertiliser application, alternate uses of crop residue, and intermittent rice irrigation. Key barriers to adoption of such methods by smallholder farmers include limited labour, small landholding sizes, a perceived lack of necessity and limited access to resources and incentives to implement the measures. To achieve a transition to sustainable farming in smallholder systems in China which reduces emissions and secures food security will require sustained agricultural extension advice and training, coupled with financial incentives.