Paper short abstract:

I will discuss the effect of future climate scenarios on soybean production of rural parts of South Kazakhstan with the help of crop models. I also use qualitative (semi-structured interviews with farmers) methods to apply farmers' opinion in the development of clamte change adaptation strategy.

Paper long abstract:

The project looks at how climate change will affect agriculture in South-eastern region of the Republic of Kazakhstan, particularly soybean production under future climate scenarios utilizing crop modelling tools. AquaCrop FAO crop model is used to analyze soybean yield under projected climate. Impact of different irrigation practices under future climate is analyzed and is proposed to the stakeholders in the region, including small-holder farmers, local authorities, local branch of the Ministry of Agriculture, Balkash-Alakol basin (Almaty region) Inspection for water resources, scientific community. For this, firstly, crop model is calibrated and validated for the region. Secondly, semi-structured interviews with the main stakeholders (farmers) are conducted to understand their interest in obtaining information on projected future soybean yield, options for adaptation to climate change, as well as learning about their current practices and barriers to adaptation. Finally, the calibrated and validated crop model is used to understand the response of soybean production to future changes in climate under several irrigation practices. Modelling of future yield with applied adaptation options identified by farmers is performed to estimate their effect under different climate scenarios. The results is shared with stakeholders who demonstrated their interest during earlier interviews in a form of come-back seminar and via email. Farmers can then make their own decisions on adaptation options of their soybean production to climate change taking into account the modelling results.