Paper short abstract:

Is ‘stepping out’ of farming maladaptive for smallholders? In this presentation I focus on this controversial topic by drawing on recent household survey data from climatic hazard-prone coastal Bangladesh, and an analysis of the data using an innovative framework and novel methods.

Paper long abstract:

Worldwide, smallholder agriculture is under threat due to the impacts of global climate change. Under the circumstances, business as usual is no longer an option, but what adaptation pathways could provide better livelihood outcomes and under what contexts is widely contested. In my presentation I focus on a rather controversial proposition – ‘stepping out’ of farming. Opinions as to whether this adaptation pathway is an appropriate response to climatic changes or maladaptive for smallholders remain divided. I draw on our recent research based on survey data collected from over 800 smallholder farming households located in climatic hazard-prone coastal areas of Bangladesh, wherein many smallholders were stepping out of farming, either voluntarily or through planned interventions, which have been dubbed by some as orchestrated 'agrarian dispossession'. We analysed the data using an integrated driver-strategy-outcome framework, index-based data aggregation, and structural equation modelling with mediation and moderation analyses. We found that ‘stepping out’ of farming had a negative effect, whereas ‘stepping up’ had a positive effect on smallholders’ livelihood outcomes. Furthermore, we found the positive effect for households owning