Paper short abstract:

This presentation draws on a forthcoming book that examines how the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front sought to maintain political order through the structural transformation of the economy, and why the party collapsed amid mass protests and factional divisions.

Paper long abstract:

This presentation draws on a forthcoming book that examines how the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF, 1991-2019) sought to maintain political order through the structural transformation of the Ethiopian economy, and why, ultimately, the party collapsed amid mass protests and factional divisions, leading to civil war in 2020. The EPRDF initially consolidated power and secured mass acquiescence in an agrarian society through the expansion of party-state structures and control over the distribution of land and agricultural inputs. However, rapid population growth resulted in land shortages and made structural transformation and mass employment creation imperative to continue this mass incorporation. Despite rapid economic growth, the failure to create mass industrial employment resulted in a growing distributive crisis that was a major factor underpinning mass protests that began in 2014. These mass protests magnified emerging divisions within the ruling elite, and directly precipitated the EPRDF’s collapse. The Ethiopian case highlights the challenges of late-late authoritarian development. On the one hand, the fragmentation of production into global value chains has severely constrained the potential of industrial policy to deliver mass employment and rising living standards. On the other, delayed demographic transitions have resulted in rapid population growth that places intense pressure on access to land, jobs and services. Consequently, late-late development constrains state-led development as a strategy for resolving mass distributive pressures—an important driver of development according to prominent theories.