Paper short abstract:

This paper raises the need to rethink social protection orthodoxies in the light of accelerating climate change which is profoundly reshaping the socio-economic shocks and stressors drivign need while also reducing the ability of existing institutions and approaches to meet these needs.

Paper long abstract:

This paper brings climate analysis into the social protection discourse and identifies the implications of current climate analysis for the social protection sector in the medium term. It argues that some key aspects of social protection conceptualisation and design which have become orthodoxies over recent decades, may not be appropriate in a context of accelerating climate change. It argues that key institutional, policy and programming issues need to be revisited in order to address the increase in protracted crises which are likely to occur in coming decades.

While there is considerable uncertainty in terms of the detailed timeframe and location of climate impacts, and climate models are broadly consistent in predicting the nature of the climate impacts that this will engender, and how these will be distributed regionally. Climate impacts on human and natural systems will have profound adverse implications for sustainable livelihoods, the structure of national economies and labour markets, health, access to basic resources, and poverty. In the face of multiple compounding climate and socio-economic shocks, for some populations the limits to adaptation may be reached. Many of these impacts will be experienced simultaneously by significant populations at national or regional levels, and will challenge social protection orthodoxy in a number of ways.

This paper proposes that as a sector we need to accommodate these factors in our current thinking in order to prepare for future challenges. The six key issues discussed in the paper are; institutions and mandates, financing, coverage, targeting, delivery modalities and instruments.