The impact of trade liberalization on food security in Nigeria: an interrupted time series analysis
Zainab Oyetunde-Usman (University of Greenwich )
Kehinde Oluseyi Olagunju (Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute)
Paper short abstract:
We assessed the impact of trade liberalization on food security using the interrupted time series analysis. Result showed a mixed impact on food security. We recommend policy focus on improving the value chain of agricultural crops for global competitiveness and food security.
Paper long abstract:
Till date knowledge of impact of trade policies on food security is limited. We assess this by extracting data on per-capita food supply of selected staples and commodity crops from 1961 to 2012 from the Food and Agricultural Organisation Statistics (FAOSTAT) database. This data provided us with 51 years observations, with a focus on the 1986 Structural Agricultural Policy. In our analysis, we assessed the trend of each staples and commodity crops before and after trade liberalization. The next step was application of a single treatment group interrupted time series analysis model (itsa). We checked for auto-correlation between data points using Durbin Watson Test and auto-correlation plots in our generalized least squares regression. The result of our analysis revealed significant increase in per capita food supply in most domestic staple crops except a decrease in wheat, groundnut and rice in the first year of intervention. Relative to pre-intervention, there were indication of slight increase in per capita food supply of yam, wheat, cassava, rice and cocoa, significant decrease were obvious for groundnut and sorghum. While this study could not disentangle other policies interventions along the line that may have had exogenous impact on per-capita supply. It established a mixed effect in the interference of trade liberalization. While trade liberalization is partly positive for certain agricultural output especially commodity crops, it remains a barrier for growth and global competitiveness for some domestic crops. Policy intervention should focus on improving the value chain of agricultural crops for global competitiveness and food security.
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