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- Convenor:
-
Sandeep Singh
(Central University of Punjab)
Send message to Convenor
- Chairs:
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Prof. Jagmeet Singh
(Department of South and Central Asian Studies)
Sandeep Singh (Central University of Punjab)
- Discussant:
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Dr. Gurphej Singh
- Format:
- Panel
- Theme:
- Political Science, International Relations, and Law
Abstract
From Security Order to Security Flux: Rethinking Central Asian Security Architecture
Abstract:
Central Asia has traditionally had a crucial role in Eurasian geopolitics. Russian involvement in the region commenced in the eighteenth century, as the Kazakh hordes progressively acknowledged Russian imperial suzerainty, culminating in the annexation of the majority of contemporary Kazakhstan by the early nineteenth century. The ensuing Russian expansion into Central Asia was profoundly influenced by geopolitical competition with the British Empire, commonly referred to as the Great Game, as Russia aimed to fortify its southern borders and impede British influence emanating from India. By the conclusion of the nineteenth century, significant metropolitan centers like Tashkent and Samarkand developed into principal military and administrative centers, solidifying Central Asia's position within Russia's geopolitical sphere. For more than a century, the region was predominantly governed by Russian political, economic, and security frameworks, with Moscow offering a comprehensive security umbrella.
Nonetheless, Russia's extensive military and political involvement in Ukraine has profoundly transformed this enduring order. As Moscow shifts its strategic focus to its western borders, Central Asia is, for the first time since the post-imperial period, encountering a relative security vacuum and increased vulnerability to external influences. This dynamic climate has fostered heightened involvement from China, Turkey, the European Union, the United States, and India. China has become the most proactive participant, enhancing its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), increasing economic penetration, educational diplomacy via Confucius Institutes and scholarships, and a gradual expansion of its security presence, amid escalating concerns regarding debt dependency.
The regional security picture has become increasingly complex due to changes in Afghanistan after the Taliban's resurgence, resulting in non-traditional security challenges including narcotics trafficking, refugee influxes, and religious radicalization. The post-COVID-19 economic deceleration, notably the significant reduction in Russian remittances impacting Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, has introduced a further dimension of risk.
In this context, the panel analyzes the development of a novel Central Asian security framework, influenced by multipolar rivalry, evolving alliances, and transnational dangers—frequently referred to as a New Great Game. It seeks to examine its ramifications for regional stability, adjacent nations, and the overarching international framework.
Keywords:
Multipolarity and Regional Security Order; Post-Russian Hegemonic Transition; Geopolitics of Central Asia; China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Strategic Influence; Non-Traditional and Security Threats; Security Vacuum and Strategic Realignment
Accepted papers
Abstract
Russia’s traditional dominance over Central Asia’s security architecture had remained unchallenged for many years after the Central Asian states were formed as separate nations. However, the post-2021 period has witnessed a noticeable shift in regional dynamics, where China’s expansion beyond economic spheres into direct security sector engagement appears to be reshaping the balance of influence. China’s involvement in the security sector is seen in three different dimensions, military infrastructure development, defense technology transfers, and bilateral security partnerships. This raises an important puzzle, i.e. in what ways is China’s deliberate security sector involvement reshaping Russia’s historically unchallenged position in Central Asia, and what mechanisms facilitate this competitive encroachment? The paper explores how China’s transition from an economic investor to an active security stakeholder is competing with Russian primacy, and whether this transition generates structural incentives for Central Asian states to diversify their security partnerships. Drawing on regional hegemony theory and strategic hedging frameworks, this analysis argues that China’s security sector expansion operates as a parallel architecture that subtly challenges rather than directly confronts Russian dominance, creating asymmetrical competition dynamics. The examination considers how bilateral defense agreements and participation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, along with military training programs, enable Beijing to position itself as an alternative security guarantor. Through qualitative analysis of secondary sources such as policy documents, bilateral agreements, and scholarly assessments, the paper traces the patterns and scope of Chinese security engagements across Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan between 2021 and 2025. The findings suggest that China’s security expansion is not uniformly threatening to Russian interests at present, but rather creates differentiated vulnerabilities for Central Asian states based on their geostrategic position and economic capacity. Which means that weaker, border-vulnerable states like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan face greater pressure to accept Chinese security partnerships, while resource-rich Kazakhstan maintains more autonomy in choosing its security partners. Ultimately, the paper contributes to understanding how multipolarity emerges within traditional hierarchical regional orders through competitive institutional and bilateral mechanisms rather than through confrontation.
Abstract
China’s relationship with Central Asia has undergone a significant transformation. It can be characterized by a transition from traditional security engagement and limited military collaboration to a broader strategy based on cultural diplomacy, economic integration, and structural influence. In the past, security concerns and geopolitical alignments shaped how countries interacted with each other. Now, China is focusing more on soft power tools like educational exchanges, Confucius Institutes, and media outreach, as well as big economic projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The study argues that these developments indicate not only an increase in soft power, but also a shift toward what can be termed “sticky power” in which cultural and educational engagements progressively integrate Central Asian states into Chinese-led economic, linguistic, and digital frameworks. Against this background, It presents the concept of a “classroom-to-cinema strategy,” emphasizing how Mandarin language institutions and academic exchanges serve as initial entry points, further strengthened by media flows, film collaborations, and cultural production.
By placing this change in the context of Central Asia’s changing security architecture, the study shows how China’s influence goes beyond traditional hard security models. China’s approach to regional security is different from Russia’s because it creates long-term dependencies, affects the preferences of elites, and limits policy autonomy. The paper uses qualitative analysis of cultural initiatives and institutional linkages in important Central Asian countries to show how diplomacy has changed into a hybrid model that includes culture, economy, and security. In conclusion, the study contributes to discussions about power transformation by conceptualizing China’s involvement in Central Asia as “sticky power,” wherein cultural and educational instruments create structural embeddedness, increase exit costs, and reshape security frameworks through socio-cultural and informational networks that limit regional strategic autonomy.
Abstract
The Central Asian Republics share borders with Afghanistan, China, Russia, and Iran, and have access to the Caspian Sea. Central Asia has been strategically important to the world owing to its location and natural resources. This region gained political momentum specially after the incident of 9/11. Through measures like economic corridors, security collaborations, and energy diplomacy, competition among major powers, primarily China, Russia, and the United States, has increased as the region resurfaces as a geopolitical pivot. A complex strategic environment is shaped by Russia's long-lasting security impact, China's growing influence through infrastructure projects and the Belt and Road Initiative, and the United States' selective engagement.
In light of this, India's interactions with Central Asia demonstrate a careful balancing act meant to protect its interests without jeopardizing its strategic independence. The paper examines India's policy instruments, such as involvement in multilateral forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, connectivity initiatives like the International North-South Transport Corridor, and an increasing focus on energy security and counterterrorism cooperation. The research argues that, despite the benefits and challenges posed by great power competition, India's capacity to preserve strategic autonomy depends on broadening its alliances, improving regional connectivity, and implementing a practical, multi-vector foreign policy. It also examines the limitations imposed by regional instability, geographical restrictions, and the conflicting influence of rival nations. In light of the rising tensions between Iran and the US allies, resulting in the blocking of energy supplies, Central Asia may offer an alternative source of gas and oil for the world, and especially for India.
Keywords: Great Game, New Great Game, Central Asia, SCO, INSTC, BRI
Abstract
Kazakhstan is the world’s leading uranium producer yet suffers from a chronic electricity deficit that threatens its 2060 carbon neutrality goal. To address this, the government has pivoted toward civilian nuclear energy following a national referendum in 2024. The primary site for the first planned nuclear power plant (NPP) is Ulken, located on the shores of Lake Balkhash, which is a shallow, endorheic basin whose survival depends on the Ili River, which originates in China. This research investigates the ‘Nuclear-Water Nexus’, examining the technical and geopolitical viability of Lake Balkhash as a cooling source for the Ulken NPP. The study seeks to answer, how do transboundary water risks and Chinese upstream diversions on the Ili River impact the operational sustainability of the Ulken NPP, and how does Kazakhstan mediate the resulting strategic dependency on both Russia and China?
The study employs the Water-Energy-Environment (WEE) Nexus framework alongside Strategic Hedging Theory. The methodology relies on a synthesis of, peer-reviewed hydrological literature and remote sensing data to reconstruct the Balkhash water balance; scenario-based reactor technology analysis comparing once-through cooling and closed-loop cooling tower designs using published VVER-1200 and Hualong One specifications; and geopolitical assessment of Kazakhstani hedging behaviour, operationalised through observable policy moves such as multi-vendor bidding, spent fuel take-back agreements, and bilateral water diplomacy with China. By mapping these interconnected technical and geopolitical risks, the research aims to determine if the nuclear transition provides truw energy security or instead shifts Kazakhstan’s strategic vulnerability from fuel imports to a precarious reliance on transboundary water flows controlled by external powers.