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Abstract

Kazakhstan is the world’s leading uranium producer yet suffers from a chronic electricity deficit that threatens its 2060 carbon neutrality goal. To address this, the government has pivoted toward civilian nuclear energy following a national referendum in 2024. The primary site for the first planned nuclear power plant (NPP) is Ulken, located on the shores of Lake Balkhash, which is a shallow, endorheic basin whose survival depends on the Ili River, which originates in China. This research investigates the ‘Nuclear-Water Nexus’, examining the technical and geopolitical viability of Lake Balkhash as a cooling source for the Ulken NPP. The study seeks to answer, how do transboundary water risks and Chinese upstream diversions on the Ili River impact the operational sustainability of the Ulken NPP, and how does Kazakhstan mediate the resulting strategic dependency on both Russia and China?

The study employs the Water-Energy-Environment (WEE) Nexus framework alongside Strategic Hedging Theory. The methodology relies on a synthesis of, peer-reviewed hydrological literature and remote sensing data to reconstruct the Balkhash water balance; scenario-based reactor technology analysis comparing once-through cooling and closed-loop cooling tower designs using published VVER-1200 and Hualong One specifications; and geopolitical assessment of Kazakhstani hedging behaviour, operationalised through observable policy moves such as multi-vendor bidding, spent fuel take-back agreements, and bilateral water diplomacy with China. By mapping these interconnected technical and geopolitical risks, the research aims to determine if the nuclear transition provides truw energy security or instead shifts Kazakhstan’s strategic vulnerability from fuel imports to a precarious reliance on transboundary water flows controlled by external powers.