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Abstract

This comparative study aims to analyze the success and limitations of regional integration in Central Asia and to present an optimal regional integration model.

Regional integration is one of the most effective ways to promote socio-economic development through addressing regional challenges and improving economic growth rates. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, regional integration in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) was expected as both a phenomenon and a reality. Currently, there are numerous regional institutions and frameworks in Central Asia, resulting in phenomena called the "spaghetti bowl" (Linn & Pidufala, 2008) and the "domino effect" (Wang, 2014). The progress of regional integration in Central Asia remains slow compared to other regions, due to political governance problems, as well as the prevalence of informal economies. In addition, regional frameworks in Central Asia have not progressed well due to the strong involvement of external powers such as Russia and China and the lack of a Central Asia-led framework (Krapohl & Vasileva-Dienes, 2020). However, there is a significant change in the political environment over the past years. It is a big shift that meetings of only the leaders of the five countries have been held regularly after 2017, rather than under the C5+1 framework. The Fergana border agreement between the three countries, signed in March 2025, could be an opportunity to accelerate regional integration.

Unlike other studies, this study focuses on the importance of economic and security aspects, which allows it to derive unique policy implications for promoting further regional integration. The hypothesis of this study is that both security and economic factors have a significant impact on the promotion of regional integration in Central Asia, which is proven by a comparative analysis with the ASEAN experience. Evidence is provided mainly by a qualitative analysis and a literature review including the analysis of political economy as well as economic and social indicators. In particular, the paper refers to the analysis of integration theory (Balassa, 1961) and Schneider's (2017) analysis of regional integration, as well as model analyses that include ASEAN’s integration process (Kim, 2014 and Ishikawa, 2021).

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Abstract

In the current context of ongoing and consistent economic reforms in Uzbekistan, the scale of the shadow economy and its adverse impact on the state budget have become issues of considerable significance. In an effort to curb the shadow economy, foster a transparent and competitive business environment, and combat corruption, a range of legal frameworks, policy measures, and governmental decrees are being formulated and implemented. Despite the government's commitment to enhancing economic transparency and promoting digitalization, shadow economic activities continue to persist and, in some sectors, even expand. This phenomenon is particularly evident in agriculture, construction, and the services sector. According to sectoral data on the composition of the informal and shadow economy, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries account for 63.6%, construction for 41.3%, services for 40.1%, and industry for 8.9%.

In particular, informal employment remains prevalent in the construction sector and various service industries, with cases of underreporting wages and making payments in cash continuing to persist. Moreover, in food retail outlets, public catering establishments, and various service points catering to the population, it is still common for payments to be made not through official bank card transactions, but rather in cash or via peer-to-peer card transfers, thereby bypassing formal financial channels. According to data from the Statistics Agency for the year 2024, the gross value added (GVA) generated by the informal economy amounted to 383.6 trillion UZS, representing 26.4% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Additionally, the gross value added of the shadow economy was estimated at 122.0 trillion UZS, accounting for 8.4% of GDP.

This article examines the aforementioned issues and explores the negative impact of the shadow economy on the state budget. A comprehensive study of this issue is of critical importance not only for analyzing its detrimental effects on public finances, but also for developing effective mechanisms aimed at reducing its scale.

In the course of this research, more than 20 enacted laws and presidential decrees, over 10 statistical datasets, as well as observational and analytical findings by the author based on real-life data concerning the shadow economy, have been analyzed. The study is also grounded in a thorough review of academic literature and scholarly investigation, which provides insights into the underlying causes of the shadow economy, preventive measures, and the outcomes achieved thus far.Therefore, conducting academic research on this topic is of strategic importance for ensuring Uzbekistan’s sustainable economic development.

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Abstract

The country has made significant progress in establishing a legal framework for elder care system, and implementing comprehensive reforms aimed at improving employment rates, citizens well-being, and strengthening social protection. The estimated doubling of the share of Kazakhstan's older people over 65 is expected to significantly increase the demand for care services and put additional strain on the elder care sector. The focus of state elder care policy is on older people living alone and people with disabilities. Statutory responsibility for caring for older people falls on their children, in the absence of any support from the state/employers. The elder care system in Kazakhstan is the least developed sector of the care economy, but it is very important, as a source of new jobs, increased employment, population’s welfare and country’s economic growth.

We analyze institutional care provided by public and private institutions, public and private in-home care provided by social workers and paid care workers, and unpaid in-home care provided to older relatives by children/spouses to understand the effectiveness of existing care policies, as well as the relationship of socio-cultural norms and traditional gender roles to the dominant types of care in the country and discuss the potential impact of expanded care services on employment. The dominant type of elder care is unpaid in-home care, mainly provided by women, while institutional and paid care makes up an insignificant share. We find that low quality and unaccessibility of institutional services for all elderly people in need of care, as well as unaffordability of paid care services for the most of elderly, gender roles and society mentality are among the factors contributing to this situation. Most caregivers do not want to place their elderly parents to nursing homes, and the elderly themselves do not want to live there for a number of reasons. Family caregivers would prefer to have state financial support/provision and help from social workers / paid care workers in providing adequate care at home. The analysis of the legal framework governing the elder care helped to identify gaps in care legislation that affect the redistribution of unpaid work and women's participation in the workforce. These findings indicate the need to advance a comprehensive long-term elder care state policy that takes into account in-home family caregivers support, as well as residential care services and day care services development.