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Abstract

This comparative study aims to analyze the success and limitations of regional integration in Central Asia and to present an optimal regional integration model.

Regional integration is one of the most effective ways to promote socio-economic development through addressing regional challenges and improving economic growth rates. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, regional integration in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) was expected as both a phenomenon and a reality. Currently, there are numerous regional institutions and frameworks in Central Asia, resulting in phenomena called the "spaghetti bowl" (Linn & Pidufala, 2008) and the "domino effect" (Wang, 2014). The progress of regional integration in Central Asia remains slow compared to other regions, due to political governance problems, as well as the prevalence of informal economies. In addition, regional frameworks in Central Asia have not progressed well due to the strong involvement of external powers such as Russia and China and the lack of a Central Asia-led framework (Krapohl & Vasileva-Dienes, 2020). However, there is a significant change in the political environment over the past years. It is a big shift that meetings of only the leaders of the five countries have been held regularly after 2017, rather than under the C5+1 framework. The Fergana border agreement between the three countries, signed in March 2025, could be an opportunity to accelerate regional integration.

Unlike other studies, this study focuses on the importance of economic and security aspects, which allows it to derive unique policy implications for promoting further regional integration. The hypothesis of this study is that both security and economic factors have a significant impact on the promotion of regional integration in Central Asia, which is proven by a comparative analysis with the ASEAN experience. Evidence is provided mainly by a qualitative analysis and a literature review including the analysis of political economy as well as economic and social indicators. In particular, the paper refers to the analysis of integration theory (Balassa, 1961) and Schneider's (2017) analysis of regional integration, as well as model analyses that include ASEAN’s integration process (Kim, 2014 and Ishikawa, 2021).