Abstract:

The global climate is rapidly changing in the past 100 years. The IPCC’s first report in 1990 suggested an increase in global average temperature between about 0.15°C and 0.3°C per decade for 1990 to 2005 that can now be compared with observed values of about 0.2°C per decade (IPCC, 2007). Warming is expected to be greatest over northern latitudes land and least over the Southern Ocean. That makes Europe and Central Asia Region vulnerable to more frequent and severe extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and heat waves.

Kazakhstan is a landlocked country and about 90% of its territory lies in the arid zone, represented by steppe, semi desert and desert landscapes. Analysis of climate models together with the observational data enables to project future changes covering a range of possible futures including idealized or worst emission scenarios. An expected rise of mean annual temperature in Kazakhstan is 1.4C by 2030 and 4.6C by 2085 that is higher than the projected global average surface air warming for six SRES emissions marker scenarios. The best estimate for the high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0C whereas the best estimate for the low scenario (B1) is just 1.8C (IPCC, 2007). One of the projected consequences of climate change is an increase of water resources in mountain areas and decrease in the plain areas. That assumption raises the water security concern in Kazakhstan as less than the half of the surface water resources of the country is formed within its border, whereas major rivers are originated in the mountainous areas of China, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia.

Decentralization of water allocation after the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to tensions between interdependent states within shared watersheds. Kazakhstan is a country in transition experiencing a rapid urbanization process. There is a trend of increase of urban population by the movement of people from rural areas. That fact leads to an increase in water demand.

The current study among other things examines the concept of sustainable development by studying environmental, economic and social aspects and a systematic approach to assess urban water supply. Besides that, the project is carried out integrating the local population to work on climate-justified strategy for sustainable urban water supply system.

Abstract:

China has been recognised to be the leading country in the green energy transition. Different from the literature that emphasises the role of the powerful central state, this article reveals how China’s green energy strategies and policies can also be reshaped by local dynamics. Based on ethnographic, interview, and archival research, this article interrogates the building of ‘the world’s largest desert photovoltaic (PV) power base’ in Dalad, an Inner Mongolian county in northwest China. The article makes two arguments. First, the base project should be seen as a product of what I term ‘growth-driven environmentalism’, which characterises the local state’s mediation between the top-down energy strategies and the bottom-up developmental needs. Second, while the base project may be viewed as a successful climate action in its own right, it obscured the concurrent acceleration of coal-based industrial growth and entrenched the energy-based development model in Dalad. This article offers a theoretical contribution to our understanding of the role of the local state in reconstructing and reshaping the green energy transition, alongside the powerful central state, and suggests that understandings of the green energy transition must step past the macro picture to understand what is on the ground.

Abstract:

Abstract

The article considers problems and perspectives of water diplomacy in Central Asia in the context of Climate agenda COP26. Special attention is given to the role of international cooperation in the formation of water diplomatic interconnectivity of Central Asia. The aim of the study is to identify the theoretical foundations and practical possibilities of creating a package of measures at regional, international and global level based on the interaction of the potentials of the countries and coordination of their water strategies. The object of the research is formation of the interactive framework of water diplomatic connectivity with use of the experience of foreign partners and international organizations. The author used scientific methods of historical, systemic, logical, structural, factorial and comparative analysis. Results to be obtained: an analysis of regional water cooperation of five countries; an assessment of the level of development of the countries of the region in the field of water diplomacy; an analysis of problems and prospects of the development of water diplomacy of the states; classification of main dimensions of water diplomacy; formulation of the priorities of water cooperation of Central Asian countries.

Key words: water diplomacy, climate change, COP26, international cooperation.

Abstract:

The problem of water scarcity is one of the key issues in the Central Asian region for the coming decades. This is due both to climate change, in which there is an increase in temperature due to the so-called global warming, as well as to population growth and economic development in the countries of the region. If in the 1960s the region was inhabited by 24.4 million people, in 2000 about 52 million people, today more than 80 million people live here, with the prospected 100 million people by 2050.

A larger population means more consumption of water and other resources, the production of which also requires large amounts of water. Given that a very significant part of the population of the Central Asian region is engaged in agriculture and there are not enough alternatives to this activity in the region, it is very difficult to solve the problem of water shortage in our countries. The situation is exacerbated due to the outdated infrastructure, watering practices, and absence of environmentally oriented education policies in the region.

To understand the water problems in the region in a complex in this paper we will consider the problem of water availability in the region of Central Asia using the cases of water-rich Kyrgyzstan, and water-deficient Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan as Kyrgyzstan's main water partners. We will ignore Tajikistan and Turkmenistan since the former itself is a major source of water and takes practically nothing from Kyrgyzstan, while the latter is located at a very long distance and the level of water interaction between these two republics is minimal.

Counting that the main dichotomy of relations between upstream nations (Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) and low-stream nations (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan) of the region is in energy and water relations (upstream nations prefer to let water down in winter, when they need to generate more electricity on the hydropower plants, while low stream nations need water at vegetation period, in spring and summer), we will estimate the history of this type of relations, the effects of cooperation and non-cooperation, including economic, social and political risks.

For understanding the prospects of water cooperation in the region we will estimate the current trends and driving forces of regional water cooperation, and the changes in the domestic water policies related to water shortages, making each nation more prone to regional cooperation.

Abstract:

The catastrophic impacts of war on Afghanistan’s environment are profound, a country suffering from decades of conflict and violence, thus making the state one of the most vulnerable in the world in terms of climate change and environmental degradation. According to the INFORM Climate Risk Index of the European Commission, Afghanistan was ranked fourth among countries most affected by the impacts of climate change in the year 2023. Despite being one of the lowest emitters of greenhouse gases, Afghanistan is one of the worst sufferers of the looming crisis of climate change. It is projected that the temperatures in Afghanistan will increase by more than the global average and there will be an increase in drought and flood risks in the country in the coming years. Along with the physical damage, the Afghan wars have also created gradual environmental violence in ways not immediately visible which in the long run have made the war-induced environmental degradation deadlier than the actual wars in Afghanistan. This paper intends to highlight how war and climate change are somehow interlinked. The use of military hardware as a part of warfare, the years of intensive bombings, and the extensive use of depleted uranium-laced ammunitions caused unimaginable destruction to the life-sustaining natural resources of the country whose impacts are beyond human comprehension. Reports suggested that from its first post-9/11 airstrikes to its withdrawal in mid-2021, the U.S. military dropped over 85,000 bombs on Afghanistan along with the largest non-nuclear bomb ever used by the U.S. in a conflict zone known as "the Mother of All Bombs" in the Achin district of Nangarhar in 2017. The paper will try to analyze the problem surrounding the toxic military burn pits, the issue of lethal landmines, the war-induced deforestation, loss of biodiversity, air pollution, and war-generated destruction of the agricultural and traditional irrigation system in Afghanistan known as the Qanat/Karez system —all are disastrous legacies of war. An attempt will be made in the paper to address the issue of climate-induced migration in the country and its regional implications as well. Therefore, the paper will be a novel initiative in highlighting the consequences of war on Afghanistan from an interdisciplinary perspective involving environmental studies, military/strategic and migration studies at its core.