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Paper abstract:

This paper discusses Russia’s role in contemporary Central Asia. The paper examines the political science and economics literatures on alliances focusing on the relationship between large and small powers. The thesis of this paper is that small powers attempt to exert some influence in the relationship to get the larger power to adopt at least some of its foreign policy goals. Russia seeks to maintain its influence in the region by having bilateral relationships with the CARs. Russia’s economic health has a strong association with remittances inflows to the CARs, since the Russian Federation is the main destination of migration from the CARs. We can predict that CARs will continue to suffer from Russian economic stagnation due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine as they are dependent on Russia’s economic health through migrant remittances and financial flows. Considering that a large share of remittances contributes to GDP, remittance-dependent countries face serious economic risks, as governments are having difficulties when trying to find foreign-exchange reserves for import spending. Outbound remittances from Russia, as expressed in U.S. dollars, would also be impacted by the weakening of the ruble against the dollar. Such valuation effects would also be felt in outbound remittance flows from Europe through the weakening of the euro against the U.S. dollar.

Inter trade relations between Russia and the CARs is also examined. The traditional Russian influence on the CARs economic performance through trade appears to be declining, while new linkages such as migration, remittances, finance and political gains through the CARs dependency on the Russian energy supply and transit emerged. Russia is promoting influence through regional organizations: the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Post Soviet Union there have been several agreements and regional intergovernmental organizations, however, due to poor level of governance, low level of institutional qualities, and governance in the region most of the agreements remain dysfunctional.

Despite natural desires to distance themselves from the Soviet legacy, Central Asian countries must maintain relatively high levels of regional economic and security interactions with Russia and other developed nations, despite their natural desire to distance themselves from Russian hegemony. The CARs should not focus on the Russian led EEU and instead focus on initiatives such as the GUAM to promote democracy and economic development ties with the west, rather than Russia.

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This paper examines the impact of sanctions against Russia on the agency of Central Asian states. The search for agency of Central Asian countries has emerged as a major element in Central Asian studies. Concepts such as sovereignty, multi-vector policies, accommodating regionalism, and connectivity can all be seen as pieces of a larger emerging research program that centers on the quest for the agency of Central Asian states. Efforts to identify, articulate, and consolidate the agency of Central Asian states are taking place in both academic and policy spheres. International organizations and Western countries, in particular, have publicly embraced and contributed to this quest. However, new international dynamics stemming from the war in Ukraine and subsequent intensification of sanctions against Russia have increased pressure on Central Asian countries and can work to curb their independent agency. This situation raises questions about the sustainability of the agency of Central Asian states. This paper focuses on the evolution of policy discourse and academic narrative surrounding the agency of Central Asian states. The theoretical basis of the paper will rely on the high politics vs. low politics framework. Empirical data will draw on a systematic study of discourse and posture demonstrated by officials of major powers when visiting Central Asian countries and the reaction of local officials to their foreign counterparts (particularly in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) since the war. Overall, this paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on the agency of Central Asian states and sheds light on the impact of sanctions against Russia on their independent agency from a regional perspective.

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Paper abstract:

The Islamic Republic of Iran stressed on an East-oriented policy since the 1980s, an essential part of which has been relations with Russia pursued more actively especially between 2005 and 2013 in enunciative and operational policies. However, the cardinal issue associated with these relations is that despite the East-oriented

attitude of Iran's foreign policy during that period, the political relations were practically limited and this was followed by a decline in bilateral economic exchanges where the impact of international sanctions - UN Security Council￾enacted sanctions with the participation of Western and Eastern countries - was of

great significance in this regard. Therefore, the question arises as to how and to what extent the international sanctions affected the decline in Tehran-Moscow relations in the era of Eastern policies? The core idea of this article is that "the decline in the two countries' bilateral relations is mainly affected by the international sanctions,

and these sanctions have drastically alleviated their bilateral relations challenging Iran's East-oriented policy due to Russia's adherence to the international security and normative regimes arising from international arrangements, as well as Russia's

affirmative vote to UN Security Council's resolutions on embargos against Iran on one hand, and their binding nature on the other hand." This article employs a method of correlation of variables to show the association between the sanctions and the two

countries' relations, and a qualitative method of analyzing data available in libraries and websites alongside the experts' viewpoints is acquired to analyze Russia's reasons to join the UN resolutions on sanctions against Iran.