Send message to Authors

Paper abstract:

This paper discusses Russia’s role in contemporary Central Asia. The paper examines the political science and economics literatures on alliances focusing on the relationship between large and small powers. The thesis of this paper is that small powers attempt to exert some influence in the relationship to get the larger power to adopt at least some of its foreign policy goals. Russia seeks to maintain its influence in the region by having bilateral relationships with the CARs. Russia’s economic health has a strong association with remittances inflows to the CARs, since the Russian Federation is the main destination of migration from the CARs. We can predict that CARs will continue to suffer from Russian economic stagnation due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine as they are dependent on Russia’s economic health through migrant remittances and financial flows. Considering that a large share of remittances contributes to GDP, remittance-dependent countries face serious economic risks, as governments are having difficulties when trying to find foreign-exchange reserves for import spending. Outbound remittances from Russia, as expressed in U.S. dollars, would also be impacted by the weakening of the ruble against the dollar. Such valuation effects would also be felt in outbound remittance flows from Europe through the weakening of the euro against the U.S. dollar.

Inter trade relations between Russia and the CARs is also examined. The traditional Russian influence on the CARs economic performance through trade appears to be declining, while new linkages such as migration, remittances, finance and political gains through the CARs dependency on the Russian energy supply and transit emerged. Russia is promoting influence through regional organizations: the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Post Soviet Union there have been several agreements and regional intergovernmental organizations, however, due to poor level of governance, low level of institutional qualities, and governance in the region most of the agreements remain dysfunctional.

Despite natural desires to distance themselves from the Soviet legacy, Central Asian countries must maintain relatively high levels of regional economic and security interactions with Russia and other developed nations, despite their natural desire to distance themselves from Russian hegemony. The CARs should not focus on the Russian led EEU and instead focus on initiatives such as the GUAM to promote democracy and economic development ties with the west, rather than Russia.