Paper abstract:

This paper focuses on steps towards Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization process, which started after the Second Karabakh War and the contents of the 9/10 November 2020, Trilateral Statement. These developments brought to an end almost 30-year-long illegal Armenian occupation of the Azerbaijani territories, significantly changed the facts on the ground and also created an opportunity for the normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey.

I argue that due to mistrust and hostility currently persisting between Armenian and Azerbaijani societies as well as to a certain degree different goals of the various external actors in regard to this process it will not be particularly easy to achieve tangible results in the near future. Although certain attempts towards normalization process have recently been made by the Governments of both states. At the same time, certain thorny issues exist, including the fate of the Karabakh Armenians currently residing in the territory where the Russian peacekeepers are deployed. Thus, all of these issues are closely intertwined with the different post-conflict environments established in Azerbaijan and Armenia after the Second Karabakh War that create obstacles to move to a peace agenda.

I also argue that consistent work should be done in regard to reducing the sense of victimhood and humanizing the image of the adversary. Building trust between two societies divided by conflict for decades requires a significant amount of time and patience, therefore, it would be better to consider a normalization process not as a final result, but rather as a daily process. Thus, this paper is based on desk review and latest publications on state of play.

Paper abstract:

Turbulence, uncertainty and the transformation of the world order are transforming the Yalta-Potsdam system of international relations shaped after the Second World War.

These changes cover not only the relations between the global leading centers of power, but also get reflected to the security environment in various regions of the world.

The South Caucasus is no exception. The Third Artaskh war of 2020 clearly demonstrated the changed strategic environment in the region. in particular, it showed the rising role of Turkey in the region, as well as the West not willing to go beyond the application of soft-power capabilities in the region. When it comes to Russia, it both increased its position in the region, but also made it more vulnerable.

From this point of view, the submission researches the implications of global transformations on geopolitical and security environment of the South Caucasus, in particular, identifying the impact on Russia's foreign and security policy in the region.

The main objective of the study is to identify and analyze the key interests of Russia in the South Caucasus.

The main research questions:

– How the Third Artsakh war of 2022 has impacted the Russia’s position in the South Caucasus?

– How the Ukrainian war impacts the Russia’s interests and priorities in the South Caucasus?

Based on the research, the author comes up with four scenarios regarding Russia’s presence and stance in the region:

Scenario #1 - "Leaving" (the region)

Scenario #2 - "Balancing" - finding a compromise and striving to reach an agreement, in particular, with Turkey

Scenario #3 - "Strengthening Positions"

Scenario #4 - "Gathering" (joining the region)

The author argues that Scenario #3 is the most likely one. However, the process and results of the Ukrainian conflict may push Russia towards scenario #2. At the same time, quite a lot of unknowns remain, which will depend on both "internal" and "external" players in the South Caucasus.

Methods: The research is based on discourse analysis, analysis of strategic documents (e.g., the National Security Strategy of Russia 2015 and 2021), identification of bilateral and multilateral trade and economic indicators. In addition, the research is based on the scenario modeling method, analysis of actors and interests, as well as the implementation of expert interviews.

Paper abstract:

This research has its theme in the political anthropology of the Greater Middle East, with an emphasis on the Nagorno Karabakh (NK) region. The relationship of different identity groups, marked by alliances and tensions, shaped the ethnic-social reality of the South Caucasus, reflected in the conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. As it is located on the Turkic corridor, the dominance of the NK region is essential for the success of Pan-Turkism. This pan-nationalist movement has a political project marked by regionalization. Its nature is essentially ethnic, as it preaches for the union of the Turkic ethnolinguistic group, just like other identity movements. Taking these factors into account, the main objective of the research was established: to understand the influence of Pan-Turkism in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Throughout the research, it was noted that the movement is born from irredentism, with Turkic nationalism molded under ethnic precepts, relating to regional identities. This pan-nationalist movement and its theory are present in the region in a way that appears to be subjective, but that has a considerable impact on the political and social reality.