Paper abstract:

Turbulence, uncertainty and the transformation of the world order are transforming the Yalta-Potsdam system of international relations shaped after the Second World War.

These changes cover not only the relations between the global leading centers of power, but also get reflected to the security environment in various regions of the world.

The South Caucasus is no exception. The Third Artaskh war of 2020 clearly demonstrated the changed strategic environment in the region. in particular, it showed the rising role of Turkey in the region, as well as the West not willing to go beyond the application of soft-power capabilities in the region. When it comes to Russia, it both increased its position in the region, but also made it more vulnerable.

From this point of view, the submission researches the implications of global transformations on geopolitical and security environment of the South Caucasus, in particular, identifying the impact on Russia's foreign and security policy in the region.

The main objective of the study is to identify and analyze the key interests of Russia in the South Caucasus.

The main research questions:

– How the Third Artsakh war of 2022 has impacted the Russia’s position in the South Caucasus?

– How the Ukrainian war impacts the Russia’s interests and priorities in the South Caucasus?

Based on the research, the author comes up with four scenarios regarding Russia’s presence and stance in the region:

Scenario #1 - "Leaving" (the region)

Scenario #2 - "Balancing" - finding a compromise and striving to reach an agreement, in particular, with Turkey

Scenario #3 - "Strengthening Positions"

Scenario #4 - "Gathering" (joining the region)

The author argues that Scenario #3 is the most likely one. However, the process and results of the Ukrainian conflict may push Russia towards scenario #2. At the same time, quite a lot of unknowns remain, which will depend on both "internal" and "external" players in the South Caucasus.

Methods: The research is based on discourse analysis, analysis of strategic documents (e.g., the National Security Strategy of Russia 2015 and 2021), identification of bilateral and multilateral trade and economic indicators. In addition, the research is based on the scenario modeling method, analysis of actors and interests, as well as the implementation of expert interviews.