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Accepted Paper:
Can Turkmenistan cooperate with Central Asian countries? An analysis of aviation network of Central Asia
Kum Kang Lee
(Seoul National University Asia Center)
Paper long abstract:
This article utilizes aviation data and networks in contemporary Central Asia to examine international relations between Central Asian countries. Turkmenistan has been regarded as a part of the Central Asia in the literature due to its historical identity, legacy of the Soviet Union and geographical proximity. Turkmenistan has avoided regional governance and integration and kept its distance from other Central Asian countries. However, Turkmenistan's recent participation in two Central Asian summits in 2018 sparked much anticipation in the media for more cooperation among Central Asian countries in upcoming years.
This article questions the possibility of new Central Asian cooperation initiatives including Turkmenistan. It argues that, despite the recent dramatic advances in regional cooperation in politics, the lack of integration with Turkmenistan will hinder a multilateral "5-stans" cooperation network. While it is clear that other four Central Asian countries have developed regional cooperation and integration since the failure of Central Asia Cooperation Organization (CACO), according to empirical data, Turkmenistan is still an outlier from other Central Asian countries. In addition, the article argues that Turkmenistan has a distinctively different pattern of international connectivity from those of other Central Asian countries. As a result, it concludes that without a sudden development of cooperation between Turkmenistan and other Central Asian countries, a new regional cooperation system is not likely to emerge, and the recent summits will only remain a political or rhetorical action such as Treaty of Central Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free-Zone (Treaty of Semipalatinsk).
This article is based on 2-year international flight GPS logs departing from Central Asian airports. Data will be analyzed through network analysis to illustrate a clear picture of the current interstate connections in the region.
*Keywords
Central Asia, regional cooperation, international relations, Turkmenistan, aviation network
Regional Cooperation: Local framework and broader context
Session 1 Thursday 10 October, 2019, -