Paper long abstract:

Two of the most important countries in the world, and two of the most threatening to the U.S.-led international order, seem to be increasingly cooperating together - yet neither policymakers nor academics seem to understand the nature of the relationship. China and Russia coordinate on some policy, yet on the other hand seem to hedge each other regionally - especially in Central Asia. This paper contributes to discussions about the Sino-Russian relations in Central Asia by examining the dynamics between these two great powers within the largest regional organization, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The paper, using novel elite-level interviews with individuals inside the organization, argues that while the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has allowed both China and Russia to push against the United States-led international order, it has also allowed China and Russia to limit each other's actions within Central Asia: that is, the SCO has allowed China and Russia to both balance against the United States and to hedge against each other's power in Central Asia. From a theoretical perspective, the implications of this paper contribute to our understanding of how rising states challenge a hegemon - but must also simultaneously compete against each other, and can often do both through a single mechanism. It also adds to the conversation about how balancing may be taking place against the United States. Empirically, the paper offers insights into how great power relations within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization affect the efficacy of the institution for smaller regional states, as well as new awareness of granular interactions between China and Russia.