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- Convenors:
-
Aziz Burkhanov
(Nazarbayev University)
Zhanibek Arynov (Nazarbayev University)
Serik Orazgaliyev (Nazarbayev University)
Dina Sharipova (Nazarbayev University)
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- Chair:
-
Hélène Thibault
(Nazarbayev University)
- Discussant:
-
Emilbek Dzhuraev
(Soros Foundation - Kyrgyzstan)
- Formats:
- Panel
- Theme:
- Political Science & International Relations
- Location:
- Room 107
- Sessions:
- Saturday 25 June, -
Time zone: Asia/Tashkent
Short Abstract:
This panel explores various aspects and dimensions of January 2022 events in Kazakhstan, including foreign policy, security, institutions, societal perceptions and identity, as well as their mid and long-term implications.
Long Abstract:
This panel explores various aspects and dimensions of January 2022 events in Kazakhstan, including foreign policy, security, institutions, societal perceptions and identity, as well as their mid and long-term implications. Dr. Arynov’s paper will discuss whether and how external reactions to January 2022 events impact the multi-vector foreign policy of the country. Dr. Orazgaliyev’s paper explores the impact of group polarization effect of social media for democratization and public policy outcomes in Kazakhstan. Dr. Sharipova’s paper focuses on the official discourse and interpretations of January 2022 events and their societal perceptions. Finally, Dr. Burkhanov’s paper explores identity dimension of changes in Kazakhstan and discusses efforts to build popular legitimacy by emphasizing new identity narratives.
Accepted papers:
Session 1 Saturday 25 June, 2022, -Aziz Burkhanov (Nazarbayev University)
Paper short abstract:
This paper will discuss institutional and identity dimension of changes in Kazakhstan since 2019, evolution of official and popular narratives and implications of January 2022 events.
Paper long abstract:
This paper will discuss institutional and identity dimension of changes in Kazakhstan since 2019, evolution of official and popular narratives and implications of January 2022 events. When President Tokayev took office in 2019, several initiatives were launched, including enhancing political openness in the country (“Listening State”) and rehabilitation of victims of Soviet-era repressions. The January 2022 events, which were labeled as a terrorist attack by the official narrative, triggered further changes, often referred as “New Kazakhstan”. This paper explores identity dimension of changes in Kazakhstan and discusses efforts to build popular legitimacy by emphasizing new identity markers and institutional settings.
Serik Orazgaliyev (Nazarbayev University)
Paper short abstract:
New research suggests that digital media can add to societal fragmentation and democratic polarisation. This research project attempts to analyse the impact of group polarisation effect of social media for democratisation and public policy outcomes in Kazakhstan.
Paper long abstract:
There was plenty of optimism about the role of digital media in processes of democratisation, particularly in authoritarian states with heavy restrictions on free speech. In conditions of government-imposed limits on independent media, freedom of assembly and lack of opportunities to exercise political rights, social media was seen as the only remaining outlet for public discussions and deliberations. Although this might be the case, new research also suggests that social media can add to societal fragmentation and democratic polarisation. Moreover, authoritarian, and populist politicians can use social media to manipulate the masses and pursue their own interests. This research project attempts to analyse the impact of group polarisation effect of social media for democratisation and public policy outcomes in Kazakhstan. The project will analyse a series of case studies to develop an understanding of the role of social media as a platform for democratic deliberation but also study the effect of group polarisation on policymaking.
Zhanibek Arynov (Nazarbayev University)
Paper short abstract:
The paper touches upon the external dimension of the January 2022 events in Kazakhstan and argues that the January events do not necessarily mean the end of Kazakhstan's multi-vector foreign policy, and the country will be able to continue with the previous approach to foreign affairs.
Paper long abstract:
The January 2022 tragic events in Kazakhstan and the subsequent intervention of the CSTO ‘peacekeeping forces’ with the situation generated massive fears, both domestically and internationally, that the country would completely fall under Russia's influence. Many commentators, especially from Western societies, were quick to argue that the CSTO’s intervention would mean the end of Kazakhstan’s multi-vector foreign policy. In this regard, this paper touches upon the external dimension of the January 2022 events in Kazakhstan. First, the paper descriptively discusses the official reaction of external actors to the January events, including that of Russia, China, the US, the EU, as well as the Central Asian countries. Secondly, it elaborates on whether and how those external reactions impact the multi-vector foreign policy of the country. The paper claims that the January 2022 tragic events didn’t receive harsh criticism from the international audience. Some of the mentioned states openly supported how the Kazakhstani government reacted to the situation (i.e. Russia), while others opted for a more neutral position (i.e. China, Central Asian countries). Even the official American and European reaction to the January 2022 events in Kazakhstan was comparatively modest. Based on this, the paper argues that, despite a popular opinion among some commentators, the January events in Kazakhstan do not necessarily mean that the country will fall under Russia’s influence. Such initial fears were exaggerated to an extent, and Kazakhstan will be able to continue with its multi-vector foreign policy, including close economic-political ties with the West. This becomes even more evident in the light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has shifted the focus of the international community from Kazakhstan to Ukraine.
Dina Sharipova (Nazarbayev University)
Paper short abstract:
This paper will be focusing on official discourse and interpretations of January events in 2022, on the one hand, and grass roots views/perceptions, on the other. The research is based on discourse analysis of mass media and presidential messages as well as interviews with experts.
Paper long abstract:
This paper will be focusing on official discourse and interpretations of January events in 2022, on the one hand, and grass roots views/perceptions, on the other. The January events have been interpreted by the state as a coup d’état and terrorist attack which jeopardized the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the state. However, this rhetoric is not accepted for granted by everyone. How do the authorities portray the events? How is the official discourse different from people’s perceptions of the events? What are the implications of this discourse for security and political reforms in Kazakhstan? The research will include discourse analysis of mass media and presidential messages as well as interviews with experts.