Paper short abstract:

Prediction markets are the result of bets, most often on political outcomes. This paper presents ongoing ethnographic research into how market speculation refracts political understanding for those who participate in prediction markets and extends the market into speculative futures.

Paper long abstract:

Exploiting emergent technologies, the gambling industry has moved aggressively onto our personal devices, offering a range of new gambling possibilities like in-play as well as online versions of classic games like bingo. One of the most consequential innovation has seen market makers like Betfair operate as mediators between private customers who set their own odds, creating ‘prediction markets’ for all sorts of outcomes. As I write, a new market opened on the question “Will reproduction of genetically unmodified humans be banned before 2100?”. The biggest questions that prediction markets deliberate upon are political outcomes. In these markets ideological beliefs, historical trends and national moods are all reduced to prices, blunting political difference. This paper presents an account of ongoing ethnographic research, focusing on how market speculation refracts political understanding for those who participate in prediction markets and extends the market into speculative futures.