Paper short abstract:

Biodiversity loss and climate change threaten the sustainability of the tropical forests of Mexico's Calakmul Biosphere Reserve. Our research suggests that the culturally-significant jaguar could function as an indicator of socio-ecological health under transformative change to sustainable pathways.

Paper long abstract:

Biodiversity is declining globally, endangering life-support systems in the world’s poorest regions. The vast tropical forests of Mexico’s Calakmul Biosphere Reserve (CBR), host the largest populations of jaguars at the northern limit of their range. Fifty-two rural and indigenous communities living in the CBR depend on forest resources in a regionally deprived economy. Increasing crop failures caused by climate change force these communities to supplement their incomes with government-incentivised livestock ranching. The conversion of forest to pasture depletes wild game in the forest that supplement the diet of these communities, intensifying human-felid conflicts in the region. A few farmers are achieving economic security through apiculture, which benefits from forest biodiversity. We aim to understand how farming communities perceive wellbeing, and to facilitate uptake of sustainable livelihoods by integrating social and ecological surveys. Our cost-benefit analysis co-produced with rural communities, shows that apiculture brings higher benefits to rural economies and ecosystem functioning than ranching. Participatory processes, focused on knowledge transfer and community engagement, have secured the first steps to implementing apiculture enterprises led by otherwise vulnerable women. We measure the sustainability of these alternative livelihoods by monitoring jaguar abundance in the area. Our camera trapping is building a picture of these top-predators becoming confined to ever-more fragmented forest, and increasingly competing with humans for food security. Local communities understand these issues and are proud to host the culturally significant jaguar in their forests, suggesting that this species could function as an indicator of socio-ecological integrity under transformative change to sustainable pathways.