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Presentation short abstract

We quantify the value of all oil and gas reserves that need to remain unextracted to mitigate climate change, linking them to their corporate owners. The early termination of these contracts will impose substantial costs on companies, revealing vested interests around the energy transition.

Presentation long abstract

Every single fraction of a degree of global heating leads to exacerbated and unequally distributed human suffering. Every barrel of oil, gas, or coal that stays in the ground will get us closer to climate mitigation objectives and climate justice ideals. But there are vast particular interests that stand to lose much power if fossil fuel reserves are left stranded. Among these interests, one can be easily quantified: the financial value of lost investments and revenues linked to fossil fuel extraction. In this study, we take Rystad Ucube's database, the best available industry data, mapping all oil and gas reserves and linking them back to their corporate or state owners. We calculate the stranded assets of oil and gas companies by estimating the capital investment already made by these companies to develop these reserves and the current net value of the oil and gas reserves around the world. We rank companies and countries with the most stranded assets. While the costs of early termination are substantial for O&G companies – US$ 4.9 trillions –, they are outweighed by the estimated economic damages of climate change – US$ 69.6 trillion by mid-century. The financial stakes these actors stand to lose if fossil fuels are left in the ground can serve as a quantification of their conflict of interest to justify their exclusion from climate and energy policymaking institutions, where the phase-out of fossil fuels should be discussed.