Presentation short abstract

An interdisciplinary analysis of the social implications of 30×30, showing who may be affected by conservation expansion and offering insights on potential consequences for equity, governance, and more just conservation futures.

Presentation long abstract

Target 3 of the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (the “30×30 conservation target”) aims to protect 30% of lands and waters by 2030. While it is clear that achieving this ambition will reshape relations between conservation and society at scale, its social implications remain poorly understood. This talk draws on collaborative work from an interdisciplinary working group under the Science for Nature and People Partnership (SNAPP) that brought together researchers and practitioners in conservation, political ecology, Indigenous and community rights, and related fields.

We examined these implications through a range of approaches, from global and national spatial assessments to comparative insights from six country case studies and interdisciplinary dialogue. My talk will focus on our global assessment estimating the size and socioeconomic characteristics of populations living in or near candidate areas under three implementation logics. Results show that large populations may be affected and that their circumstances differ widely depending on the values guiding spatial priorities — from millions living near biodiversity-priority zones to Indigenous and Traditional Territories where people’s livelihoods are closely interwoven with their local environments.

I will also refer to our first attempts at national-level work that seeks to characterise potentially affected populations in greater detail, and to lessons from the case study review. Our work reinforces that 30×30 is not only an ecological challenge but equally a deeply social one — requiring dialogue and the integration of social perspectives in planning and decision-making if it is to avoid reproducing inequalities and instead support more equitable conservation futures.