Presentation short abstract

Novel post-growth scenarios are presented based on a matrix and narratives inspired by transformative seeds. Diverse pathways (eco-local, cooperative, tech-leaning, and delinking) are defined within a "post-growth compatible space" to foster the integration of PG futures in modelling studies.

Presentation long abstract

Dominant scenario frameworks for societal futures, such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), remain rooted in a growth-oriented economic paradigm and blind to alternative post-growth (PG) futures. To address this gap, the Post-growth Modelling Community (PGMC) was created to develop PG scenarios that can be used in global assessment reports (e.g. IPCC, IPBES) and inspire scientific research. The PGMC gathers researchers from +25 universities and has developed a conceptual matrix with key PG dimensions and populated by narratives. These are organized along axes including technological change, provisioning systems, international cooperation and (de)militarization. In parallel, “Seeds of transformative change for a post-growth future” were gathered through a form widely shared beyond the academic community. Defined as existing bottom-up transformative initiatives that prefigure just and sufficient futures, the collected seeds (88) are mapped onto the PG narratives to enrich their qualitative features.

The presentation will present the PG scenarios produced by the PGMC, including the conceptual matrix, the four PG narratives and a synthesis of the collected seeds. At the time of writing, a two-axis matrix is used to map four narratives: Eco-localism; One World Sufficiency; PG Green Deal; Sovereign Delinking. The narratives cover different pathways towards successful PG futures, with varying strategies accounting for possible geopolitical developments. Ensuring the feasibility and realism of these narratives is critical to improve the representation of post-growth futures in institutional spheres and scientific processes. By sharing our framework with the political ecology community, we hope to gather feedback to further refine the PG narratives.