Presentation short abstract

Tranformation plants are new sites of geopolitical competition. We introduce the concept of midstream geopolitics to move beyond static, extraction-centered resources geopolitics and account for the infrastructure, materials, and technologies that allow for the transformation of minerals.

Presentation long abstract

The emerging geopolitics of critical minerals hinges not only on their extraction but also on their transformation. Smelter, refiners, magnet factories, and other processing facilities are new sites of geopolitical competition and dependencies, linking countries that increasingly view one another as strategic rivals.This article introduces the concept of midstream geopolitics to move beyond static, extraction-centered notions of resources geopolitics and account for the infrastructure, materials, and technologies that allow for the transformation of cobalt, lithium, rare earths elements, or any other minerals into industrially usable forms. These midstream capacities are now central to competition between the U.S., the EU, and China as each seeks to secure or control chokepoints in supply chains. China’s longstanding investment in processing, enabled in part by Western divestment from industries deemed too polluting in the post-Cold War era, shaped the contemporary strategic landscape. We develop a framework that identifies the multidirectional influences—between the downstream, midstream, and upstream—structuring midstream geopolitics and detail nine policies through which states exert geopolitical and geoeconomic power over processing. Our analysis underscores the need for attention to the midstream and highlights its growing political significance, particularly in relation to onshoring, reshoring, and friendshoring of critical minerals.