Accepted Paper

Engaging unruliness in hazard risk assessment and planning practice.   
Cedar Patterson (University of Oslo)

Presentation short abstract

This presentation reports back into conversation the practical considerations of applying theoretical and methodological advancements from climate change adaptation and transformation literature, and spotlights the urgency of planning capable of partnering with, rather than controlling, unruliness.

Presentation long abstract

Planners are increasingly concerned with mitigating multi-hazard risks, including cascading and compounding climate risks. Simultaneously, progress has been made among climate adaptation scholars to clarify the limitations and opportunities of planning, in the technical assessment literature to grapple with stochastic risk and uncertainty, and among feminist political ecologists to elucidate and reframe what makes transformations effective. However, new reports of surpassed biophysical and indications of relational and governance tipping points present a new imperative for planners. The science, and scholarship, is clear: mitigation and adaptation alone are insufficient amidst new ecological extremes, warranting planning that takes transformation seriously. However, the enduring demarcation between planning spheres and consanguinity of prediction and control within planning practice spotlights the urgency of planning capable of partnering with unruliness rather than attempting to isolate and control it. The Oregon natural hazard mitigation plan risk assessment tool is a bold, hands-on attempt to bridge theory and practice amidst and despite uncertain regulatory landscapes. Redesigned as the basis of a FEMA hazard mitigation plan, the risk assessment tool is a localized attempt to apply theory to practice in a combined natural hazard and climate risk assessment planning process. I draw on my experience developing this tool as case study evidence towards my exploration of unruly dynamics within the practice of planning towards transformation, report back into conversation the challenges and opportunities of doing so, and engage unruliness within climate transformations literature towards a reimagination and reclamation of possible futures.

Panel P061
Unruly Anticipation: uncertainty, disasters and spaces for emancipatory change