Paper short abstract:

How has the state of human development across Philippine provinces behaved in the last two decades and how have crises influenced these? How have these provinces’ HDI converged around “clubs” and how could these groups be characterized? This proposed paper seeks to present an exploratory analysis of the Human Development Index (HDI) and key sub-indicators and variations over a long period.

Paper long abstract:

Human development in the Philippines, as in the rest of the world, has suffered subsequent years of decline under the global pandemic. Prior to this crisis, the Philippines’ Human Development Index (HDI) has been growing constantly over about two decades, albeit slowing in the years before the COVID-induced crisis. However, this long-term trend of constant though flattening growth in the national HDI masks the heterogeneity at the subnational level.

Provinces’ performance in the HDI and its sub-indices on life expectancy, education, and income have been highly variable from 1997 to 2015 (Philippine Human Development Network, 2021). With this variability and unclear pathway upwards, localities have largely remained in their respective human development groupings. Metro Manila—the political and economic center of the country—have kept its status among the high human development tier over two decades. In contrast, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region for Muslim Mindanao (BARMM)—a region that has recently won greater autonomy after a landmark peace agreement that settled a decades-long rebellion—remained stuck in a conflict trap with very low levels of human development (Monsod, 2022).

This proposed paper seeks to present an exploratory analysis of the subnational HDI, its component indexes and variables, and its variations (focusing on but not limited to the inequality adjusted HDI). Key angles of exploration include the following. First, do the HDI performance of provinces convergence in the sense of the neoclassical theory of growth (a la Solow, Barro & Sala-i-Martin, and subsequent authors), and under which conditions? Secondly, and related to the prior point of inquiry, how do the provinces converge among clusters or “clubs” and what factors characterize these? Thirdly, how do crises—not only violent conflict that has been persistent in BARMM but also natural disasters that permeate the ring of fire and the Pacific-facing eastern seaboard—influence provincial HDI?

Initial references:

Balisacan, A.M., and N. Fuwa (2004). “Going Beyond Cross-Country Averages: Growth, Inequality and Poverty Reduction in the Philippines," World Development 32: 1891-1907.

Monsod, T. (2022). “Human Development and Violent Conflict in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, 2022 to 2020.” In F. Lara and N. de la Rosa. Conflict’s Long Game: A Decade of Violence in the Bangsamoro. Manila, Philippines: International Alert.

Philippine Human Development Network (2021). “Human Development in Philippine Provinces.” In Philippine Human Development Report 2020/21. Queon City, Philippines: Human Development Network Foundation, Inc.