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- Convenor:
-
Christian Wagner
(German Institute for International and Security Affairs)
- Location:
- C407
- Start time:
- 26 July, 2012 at
Time zone: Europe/Lisbon
- Session slots:
- 3
Short Abstract:
South Asia is still characterized by a variety of security challenges from territorial disputes, religious terrorisms to left wing extremism and the threat of nuclear warfare. The panel will focus on on bilateral relations in South Asia and the policies of China and the United States in the region.
Long Abstract:
South Asia is still characterized by a variety of security challenges ranging from territorial disputes, religious terrorisms to left wing extremism and the threat of nuclear warfare. On the one hand, regional security is still fragile especially with regard to relations between India and Pakistan. The Mumbai attack of 2008 has shown the fragility of their bilateral rapprochement. On the other hand, India has intensified bilateral security cooperation in the region with various neighboring countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka. But South Asia's security architecture is also shaped by countries like China and the United States. China has increased its political, economic, and military engagement in the region in recent years. The United States have a long history of economic and military relations with individual South Asian countries.
These developments raise the question in how far they have helped to improve the security situation both on the regional and in individual countries. In order to evaluate the prospects and challenges of a regional security architecture the panel will welcome presentations on bilateral relations and comparative foreign policy analysis of South Asian countries as well as contributions dealing with the policies of China and the United States in the region.
Accepted papers:
Session 1Hussan Ara (University of Balochistan)
Paper short abstract:
The Indian ocean has become key strategic maritime route and an important international sea-lane of communication in the 21st century . The main purpose of paper is to analyse the security challenges in Indian ocean ,by applying the geographio -economic and political approach . The issues of terrorism ,narco-smuggling and hijacking of ship are frequently taking place . The disruption of international sea-lane is resulting towards the disastrous global economy . The joint strategy should be adopted to counteract terrorism in maritime domain .
Paper long abstract:
"Whoever controls the Indian ocean dominates Asia . This ocean is the key to the seven seas in the 21st century , the destiny of the world will be decided in these waters ." Alfred Thayer Mahan .
Indian ocean has become the key strategic maritime route and an important international sea-lanes of communication in the 21st century . The main purpose of the research paper is the analyse the security challenges in Indian ocean ,by applying the geographio -economic and political approach . The law enforcement ,maintenance of maritime border and maritime security cooperation are formidable challenges confronted in Indian ocean . The traditional maritime security of indian ocean is of the high concern due to the prsesence of various checkpoints of straits of Hormuz ,the Bab-el- Mandeb and Indonesian straits ,and these check points are always open . The U.S.A and China naval bases are also present in the Indian ocean .. The events and issues of terrorism are entering the maritime domain and the criminal activities are proliferating in the region . The drug-smuggling ,human smuggling ,accidents and inter-state are also taking place in Indian ocean . The disruption of international sea-lanes resulted towards the disastrous global economy . It is necessary to adopt the joint strategy to counteract the issue of terrorism in order to make this passage as safe as possible . The multinational agency of like-minded countries should be employed to combat the issue of terrorism .
Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury (Observer Research Foundation, Kolkata)
Paper short abstract:
The question of energy security has slowly but surely occupied the centre-stage of the national security discourse at the turn of the 21st century almost in all the countries of the world, but more so, in the countries aspiring rapid economic growth, like China and India in the recent times. Therefore, a search for new sources of energy has happened to be a stark reality on the part of the latter. Getting access to energy resources in other countries may not always be secure with competing claims over these resources. In this scenario, the Bay of Bengal region is likely to be a major area that would witness such competing claims, and it is needless to say that this region is integral to South Asia’s regional security.
Paper long abstract:
TThe east of the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal is believed to be intrinsically rich in hydrocarbons and minerals. This Bay has not emerged so far as a major oil and natural gas producing area. However, this region has, of late, turned into one of the most explored or extracted offshore or onshore regions. The recent discoveries of natural gas in the offshore areas of Myanmar (in the Gulf of Martaban and off Rakhaine coast), inland and offshore areas of Bangladesh and the Cauvery, Godavari and Krishna basins on the east coast of India have led to generate hope that the Bay of Bengal might become Asia's North Sea in the near future.
As the Bay of Bengal's role as a conduit of vital resources grows, so does the propensity for regional powers to exert their influence in this arena. This is particularly true for India and China, whose rising economies are dependent on the steady flow of imported resources, most importantly oil. The Bay is of vital strategic, economic and maritime importance as the Andaman Sea and the Malacca Straits link South and Southeast Asia. The threat to the ships and containers of vital interest from pirates or from competing and hostile neighbours could not only endanger individual state's security but also South Asian region's security as well. This is the core point that we shall attempt to highlight in this paper.
Musarrat Jabeen (COMSATS Institute of Information Technology) Rubeena Batool (University of Balochistan,Pakistan)
Paper short abstract:
The making and implementation of components of AFPAK policy decisions not only differ in composition but also in capacity and support system.
Paper long abstract:
National-regional-international decision making structures widely impact nation state systems. Post 9/11 geo-political configurations indicate reduction of state sovereignty. It is found: Post 9/11 decisions have proliferated terrorism in Pakistan making it state at risk. The topic is significant to flash Pakistan in international decision making structures referred to counter terrorism. This paper presents US-AFPAK policy specimen to give the analysis some peculiarity. It emphasizes four topics: (1) Contents of AFPAK policy. (2) The intent implications of AFPAK policy; actually defines how it impels Pakistan foreign policy. (3) On ground implications of AFPAK policy; underscores the reasons which dispel its effectiveness. (4) Policy options for Pakistan. The making and implementation components of this policy not only differ in composition but also in capacity and support system. Such predicament enforces to assume the failure of AFPAK policy; but truth of this assumption is subject to implementation and implications. The scenario sets the objective to suggest policy options for Pakistan in view of trouble to rationalize the foreign policy of Pakistan.
Bhumitra Chakma (The University of Hull)
Paper short abstract:
Although South Asia's security structure is conceived to be realist oriented, there is growing sign that a liberal security order will replace it. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation will play an important role in restructuring South Asia's security order.
Paper long abstract:
South Asia is traditionally known as a region of mistrust and conflict. Hence, power balancing is conceived to be the main trend in South Asia's security structure. In particular the history of India and Pakistan's bilateral relations and their strategic rivalry highlight a realist-orientation in South Asia's security and strategic landscape.
However, beneath the apparent realism dominated structure, there has always been an undercurrent of liberalism in South Asian international relations. Notwithstanding their strategic rivalries, the South Asian states cooperated in the past in numerous ways. Further, the institutional framework for a liberal security order in the region was inherent in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), although it could not achieve its full potential due to strategic rivalries of the regional states, particularly between India and Pakistan. Recently Indo-Pakistani relationship has been in the mend. Pakistan has decided to provide India an MFN status. India granted such a status to Pakistan in the mid-1990s. It is expected that growing economic interdependence will be the hallmark of regional international relations in the days to come which will transform South Asia's security order.
Nikhar Gaikwad (Yale University)
Paper short abstract:
In this paper, I analyze India’s relationship with the United States and China, along with its relationship with other emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, and South Africa to explicate trends in its nuclear policy objectives.
Paper long abstract:
For India's political leadership, nuclear power has repeatedly symbolized a path to international influence. India's nuclear policies over the years paralleled its evolving foreign policies, its emerging global ambitions and, in a sense, its ever-changing definitions. Jawaharlal Nehru's civil nuclear energy policies aimed at projecting India as a model for developing nations, just as his policy of 'non-alignment' attempted to position India as a Third World leader. Indira Gandhi's nuclear tests, undertaken under the codename 'Smiling Buddha,' like her military intervention in East Pakistan, sought to establish India as the leading regional power in South Asia. Similarly, the BJP's nuclear detonations in 1998, aptly designated 'Shakti,' symbolized its ambitions to revive India as a militant Hindu nation with power commensurate to its historical standing.
Where does India stand today with respect to its nuclear policies? On one hand, India will soon complete its nuclear triad by operationalizing its Arihant set of nuclear-powered submarines. This accomplishment, coupled with increased geopolitical concern about the safety of Pakistan's nuclear warheads, suggests a potentially pivotal role for India's future nuclear policies. On the other hand, nuclear policies appear to have taken a backseat compared to the economic and financial policymaking goals of the government. I argue that the key to demystifying India's nuclear policy objectives lies in understanding the role that it currently envisions for itself at the global stage. In this paper, I analyze India's relationship with the United States, China, and other emerging economies to explicate trends in its nuclear policy objectives.
Amina Khan (Institute of Strategic Studies (ISSI) Islamabad)
Paper short abstract:
The US-led NATO alliance has announced, albeit vaguely, 2014 as the year of withdrawal from Afghanistan. With the decade-long war coming to an inconclusive end, Afghanistan presents the greatest challenge to the international community & South Asian countries, particularly Pakistan. The coming years will see dynamics & changes for the region & preparation for this must begin now.
Paper long abstract:
The US-led NATO alliance has announced, albeit vaguely, 2014 as the year of withdrawal from Afghanistan. With the decade-long war coming to an inconclusive end, the transition process has begun and Afghan security forces are increasingly being given more responsibility and assume leadership for security in the country. However, with no clear signs of progress & stability, Afghanistan presents the greatest challenge to the international community and regional countries, particularly Pakistan. The coming years will see dynamics & changes for which preparation must begin now.
In such circumstances, the future for the countries in the region is going to depend on how they frame their relationships and cooperate in the face of further conflicts. Pakistan, given its proximity to Afghanistan & its involvement in the proverbial war against terrorism, is perhaps the most important regional player. Its shaky alliance with the US over the last ten years symbolizes what the war effort has been all about; with the endgame in Afghanistan however, it faces significant challenges, particularly in its tribal belt, that may become insurmountable if they are not addressed with a focus on regional stability. In this context, the war in Afghanistan has added a new dimension to Pakistan's relationship with regional countries & the legitimate role of all regional countries in Afghanistan, as well as justified concerns of how they will be affected with the changing dynamics of war, with the interests of regional countries (India, Russia, China & Iran) seemingly envisaging different futures for Afghanistan.
Tatiana Shaumyan (Institute of Oriental Studies RAS)
Paper short abstract:
The unresolved Kashmir problem deteriorates the situation in South Asia and the relations between India and Pakistan. The emergence of India and Pakistan as nuclear states has considerably complicated the character of their interrelationship and strategic situation in South Asia. The search for compromise, the development of political and economic ties between India and Pakistan, the expanding co-operation in different areas including within the framework of SAARC, will open a way towards improving the political and strategic situation in South Asia and the normalization of relations between India and Pakistan.
Paper long abstract:
The unresolved Kashmir problem deteriorates the situation in South Asia and the relations between India and Pakistan. In Delhi, it is considered, that the Kashmir issue has been resolved and the problem lies in the presence of foreign armed forces (i. e. Pakistani) on a part of the territory of the former princely state. The resolution to this problem can be achieved only bilaterally, on the basis of Simla Agreement 1972, without any kind of foreign participation. Pakistan categorically insists that the Kashmir issue remains unresolved, and it could only be resolved by giving the Kashmiri people the right to self-determination through a plebiscite. Pakistan considers help from outside to be useful and necessary for the process of organization and holding of plebiscite. The emergence of India and Pakistan as nuclear states has considerably complicated the character of their interrelationship and strategic situation in South Asia.
Due to the evolution in international relations on global and regional levels the involvement of external forces came down; the Russia, U.S and China are in favour of peaceful political resolution of the Kashmir problem through bilateral dialogue on the basis of the Simla Agreement of 1972.
The search for compromise, the development of political and economic ties between India and Pakistan, the expanding co-operation in different areas including within the framework of SAARC, will open a way towards improving the political and strategic situation in South Asia and the normalization of relations between India and Pakistan.
Christian Wagner (German Institute for International and Security Affairs)
Paper short abstract:
South Asia is characterized by a variety of security challenges from territorial disputes, religious terrorisms to left wing extremism and the threat of nuclear warfare. In recent years new security cooperation between India and her neighbors helped to overcome traditional security dilemmas.
Paper long abstract:
South Asia has long been known as a region of chronic instability. The region is still characterized by a variety of security challenges ranging from territorial disputes, religious terrorisms to left wing extremism and the threat of nuclear warfare. On the one hand, regional security is still fragile especially with regard to relations between India and Pakistan. The Mumbai attack of 2008 has shown the fragility of their bilateral rapprochement. On the other hand, India has intensified bilateral security cooperation in the region with Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka. The paper looks for causes and consequences of the new security cooperation that mark a fundamental shift from previous policies that may help to overcome traditional security dilemmas and strengthen cooperation in other areas as well.
Constantino Xavier (Johns Hopkins University)
Paper short abstract:
This paper evaluates the factors that drove a radical change in India’s neighborhood policy over the last thirty years. It questions to what extent this indicates a new Indian self-perception, or merely a new strategy to achieve regional preponderance.
Paper long abstract:
This paper seeks to understand the factors that drove a radical change in India's neighborhood policy over the last thirty years. During the 1980s, India executed several coercive and interventionist policies towards its smaller neighbors, following Indira Gandhi's regional doctrine. Examples between 18987 and 1989 include Operation Cactus in the Maldives, the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka, and the economic blockade against Nepal. But just a few years later, India was underlining the importance of unilateral and asymmetric concessions to these same neighbors, most importantly articulated under the Gujral doctrine. This paper argues that while India's economic reforms after 1991 played an important causal role in this transformation, encouraging India to play a smoother and more conciliatory role, there were many additional factors at play, including a growing economic and power imbalance between India and its smaller neighbors, which reassured India's self-perception as the regional hegemon, a more assertive Chinese presence in the region, and also the new reforms and economic openings of the smaller South Asian countries, now in even direr need of Indian investments. While reviewing these various drivers, this paper also evaluated to what extent India has fundamentally altered its self-perception in the region, or whether it may recede into the previous interventionist avatar of using force to achieve its predominance.