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- Convenors:
-
Ricardo Sousa
(Universidade da Beira Interior)
Álvaro Nóbrega (Universidade de LisboaISCSP)
Carlos Cardoso (Centre d'études sociales Amílcar Cabral - CESAC)
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- Discussants:
-
Ricardo Sousa
(Universidade da Beira Interior)
Álvaro Nóbrega (Universidade de LisboaISCSP)
Carlos Cardoso (Centre d'études sociales Amílcar Cabral - CESAC)
- Format:
- Panel
- Disciplinary streams:
- Politics and International Relations
Short Abstract
Guinea-Bissau has faced deep political instability since 2020, marked by Embaló’s presidency, institutional conflict, the 2025 coup, and military rule. The panel examines domestic dynamics, regional responses and external actors.
Long Abstract
Since the inauguration of President Umaro Sissoco Embaló on 27 February 2020, Guinea-Bissau has experienced profound political, institutional and geopolitical change. The early phase of Embaló’s presidency combined functioning presidential, legislative and executive institutions with international recognition. Guinea-Bissau hosted high-level visits by foreign leaders, including from Portugal and France, and Embaló served as Chairperson of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Government from July 2022 to July 2023.
Political instability intensified with the dissolution of the National People’s Assembly in May 2022 and the subsequent victory, in the June 2023 legislative elections, of a coalition led by the main opposition party, the PAIGC. The military takeover of 26 November 2025, which interrupted the presidential and legislative electoral process before the official announcement of results, marked a decisive rupture in Guinea-Bissau’s constitutional order. The military installed General Horta Inta-A as transitional president, inaugurating a military-led transition.
Analysts have interpreted the coup as a staged or self-serving coup designed to prevent the completion of an electoral process that might have favoured opposition candidate Fernando Dias da Costa over the incumbent president. The subsequent transition has included the scheduling of new elections for 6 December 2026 and before it, the revision of the constitution, a new electoral law and legal proceedings against PAIGC leader Domingos Simões Pereira.
This panel seeks multidisciplinary contributions on Guinea-Bissau’s political trajectory since 2020, focusing on the Embaló presidency, institutional instability, civil-military relations, the 2025 coup, the military-led transition, opposition politics, regional responses and external actors.