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Paper short abstract:

The paper discusses the long-term implications of the recent military coup surge in West Africa.

Paper long abstract:

Across francopone Africa military-led governments have repeatedly delayed a return to constitutional rule. There is growing concern and evidence that the putschists in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Chad intend to entrench themselves in executive power beyond the post-coup elections. Drawing on the theoretical insights of linked ecologies, the paper compares the extent to which the military juntas have formed alliances with the military at-large and among civilian elites that are strong enough to achieve this goal. The paper demonstrates that the Malian and Chadian junta created dominant alliances with other domestic actors thereby cementing its power base. By contrast, the Guinean and Burkinabé junta faces visible and potentially strong competition within the military and civil society. The article argues that these diverging pathways are the result of two interrelated factors: First, the extent to which the political grievances of the juntas overlap with the grievances of other societal forces. Second, longstanding conditions that shaped the two countries’ political dynamics prior to the coup. This finding has implications for the study of the current coup surge in Africa and the nascent scholarship on coup outcomes.