Paper short abstract:

This paper assesses continuity and changes in electoral authoritarianism, taking the 2021 Ethiopian election as a case. The incumbent won by upholding its ancestor’s manipulation tactics and inventing new ploys of coopting with rivals, hence creating regionally asymmetric authoritarianism.

Paper long abstract:

This paper assesses continuity and changes in electoral authoritarian regimes taking the 2021 Ethiopian election conducted after the Nobel Peace Prize winner, Abiy Ahmed, took power as a case. Though Abiy promised democratic elections when taking office, Ethiopia’s political trajectory took a fundamentally different path following the postponement of the 2020 election. Polls were held in 2021 under the shadow of war, critical opposition leaders’ detention, and election boycotts. The incumbent won in a landslide by maintaining its forerunner’s electoral manipulation tactics of harassing, detaining, and using state resources to manipulate elections and inventing new ploys of coopting with less-threatening oppositions to induce them to pursue self-defeating electoral tactics in return to power sharing. The leading prosperity party also adopted a new electoral dominance tactic of skillfully tailoring different appeals to diverse constituencies across the country. The paper uses official election data to show that Ethiopia’s electoral authoritarianism tends to vary across regions. While oppositions in Amhara and SNNP regions were relatively free to operate and conduct election campaigns, critical rivals in Oromia and Somali were suppressed, detained, and eliminated. Nevertheless, the incumbent garnered substantial public support by tailoring its rhetoric to the target constituency, reframing historical narratives, and addressing regionalized and localized demands that put no threat on the party’s grip on power. Such asymmetrical electoral authoritarianism and segmented political discourse have implications for Ethiopia’s future and state-society relations.